Oil prices rise and bonds wobble as Iran war stokes inflation fears

Trump warning over peace talks drives up crude price as UK gilts hit by uncertainty over Starmer leadership

Oil prices rose and global bonds wobbled on Monday, as fresh tensions in the Middle East fed inflation fears and bets that central banks will have to increase interest rates.

Brent crude, the international benchmark for oil, rose on Monday, after an attack on a nuclear power plant in the United Arab Emirates.

It came as peace talks between the US and Iran stalled in the sixth week of ceasefire. Donald Trump wrote on social media: “For Iran, the Clock is Ticking, and they better get moving, FAST, or there won’t be anything left of them. TIME IS OF THE ESSENCE!”.

Brent crude rose by as much as 1.77% to $111.16 a barrel, its highest level in nearly two weeks, early on Monday. However, it eased back to $110 a barrel after Iran said it had responded to a new US proposal aimed at ending the war.

Iran’s foreign ministry spokesperson, Esmaeil Baqaei, said exchanges were “continuing through the Pakistani mediator”, without providing details.

Global bonds were choppy, with the benchmark 10-year US Treasury yield hitting 4.631%, its highest level since February 2025, before paring back to 4.599%.

In the UK, the 10-year gilt yield hit as high as 5.19%, surpassing the 18-year high it reached on Friday, before falling back to 5.15%.

The volatility in UK government bonds is also being driven by political instability as traders anticipate that the prime minister, Keir Starmer, could face a leadership challenge from the Manchester mayor, Andy Burnham, later this year.

The swings in the bond market came as the UK chancellor, Rachel Reeves, and other G7 finance ministers gathered in Paris on Monday to discuss the economic impact of the conflict in the Middle East.

Mohit Kumar, the chief economist at the broker Jefferies, said bond investors were worried about a “shift to the left” in the UK.

“UK fiscal picture has already been in a poor shape as the government was unable to deliver on spending cuts,” he said. “A shift to the left would imply a further increase in public spending, even though the government does not have the fiscal room to do so. Tax rises have already reached a stage where further rises in taxes are likely to be unproductive and unlikely to generate additional revenue.”

However, Burnham tried to calm investor concerns over the weekend that he may push up spending. “I support the fiscal rules, there needs to be a plan to get debt down,” he told ITV.

Kathleen Brooks, the research director at the broker XTB, suggested that UK bond yields could stage a recovery this week.

“If bond markets think they have tamed Burnham from his high-spending ways, then we could see UK yields attempt a retreat on Monday,” she said.

“The key test for UK markets will be whether the 10-year yield can fall below the 5% level, and if the 30-year yield is trusting enough of Burnham to back away from 1998- level highs.”

In Japan, bond yields rose – with the 10-year yield hitting an almost 30-year high to 2.8% on Monday – as the government prepared to issue fresh debt as part of a plan to cushion the economic blow from war in the Middle East.

Stock markets opened lower in Europe on Monday, with the Stoxx Europe 600 – which tracks the biggest companies listed on the continent – dropping by 0.7%. The UK’s blue-chip FTSE 100 stock index was broadly flat.

In Asia, Japan’s Nikkei dropped by about 1%. Hong Kong’s Hang Seng index also fell 1%, while Shanghai’s SSE Composite slipped 0.1%. South Korea’s Kospi closed 0.3% higher.