Prediction market ‘watchdog’ launches six-figure ad campaign ahead of Senate hearing

A group that says its mission is to serve as a prediction market “watchdog” is launching a six-figure ad buy focused on digital and billboards this week in the Washington, D.C., media market, timed to coincide with a Senate Commerce Committee hearing examining the expansion of gambling and prediction markets.

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The group, called FairPredicts, touts itself as a nonpartisan group that holds “the prediction market industry accountable.” It has specifically been critical of Kalshi, one of the largest prediction markets that spent nearly $500,000 in 2026 alone lobbying Congress and the Commodity Futures Trading Commission, the federal agency that regulates the industry.

The group’s concern focuses in large part on sports wagering and the ability of people to influence markets with insider government or political information to which the public does not have access.

“FairPredicts is launching today as a nonpartisan market integrity watchdog with one clear mission: holding Kalshi and other prediction market operators accountable for the growing gap between what they tell the public and what they actually do,” the group said in a statement to NBC News.

In response, Kalshi went after FairPredicts and its lack of transparency on its funding.

“Smells like a casino-led effort,” Kalshi spokeswoman Elizabeth Diana said. “Prediction markets are fair, transparent, and open. Casinos limit winners (unfair), price with algorithms (opaque), and set the odds themselves (closed). FairPredicts or UnfairPredicts?”

FairPredicts would not comment on its funding sources; it is a political nonprofit that does not need to publicly disclose its donors.

Under increasing pressure, in February, Kalshi said it had opened 200 investigations into alleged insider trading, including two that the company turned over to the CFTC for investigation, which is required by law.

“No system is perfect. No financial exchange is immune from bad actors,” the company said at the time. “Not stock exchanges, not banks, not prediction markets. We’re committed to deterring and finding the bad actors, manipulators, and those who willingly cheat.”

The legalization of sports gambling and the regulatory approval of prediction markets have together sparked a high-stakes battle for consumers, leading to an explosion of advertising and lobbying as the various markets try to edge each other out. Some of the largest sports betting platforms recently put more than $40 million into a super PAC primarily focused on influencing state legislative races.

The Senate hearing Wednesday comes as there has been increased bipartisan scrutiny of alleged insider trading on prediction markets, which has led some to call for a new regulatory scheme.

“This hearing will examine how we strengthen oversight, protect the credibility of competition and address the growing exposure of young people and children to betting platforms,” said Sen. Marsha Blackburn, R-Tenn., who chairs the Senate committee holding the hearings.

The hearing will feature four witnesses: Bill Miller, president and CEO of the American Gaming Association; Mary Beth Thomas, executive director of the Tennessee Sports Wagering Council; Scott Sadin, co-founder of Integrity Compliance 360; and Patrick McHenry, a senior adviser for the Coalition for Prediction Markets.

Kalshi last month fined and suspended three political candidates for “insider trading” on their own campaigns. One of those, Mark Moran, a Democrat running for U.S. Senate in Virginia, told NBC News he made the bet on purpose to prove how prediction markets can be used to influence the political process.

“Absolutely, I did do this $100 [bet],” he said. “I have no intention of doing this further. This is simply to call attention to the fact that an entire election can be bought.

“Any candidate with enough money” can sway prediction markets, he added.

One of the most high-profile examples of someone potentially using insider information to turn a profit came last month when federal authorities arrested U.S. special forces soldier Gannon Ken Van Dyke over allegations he used classified information about the operation that led to the arrest of Venezuela’s Nicolás Maduro to make $409,000 on Polymarket.

President Donald Trump downplayed the arrest because Van Dyke bet that the military would be successful in capturing Maduro. He compared it to baseball great Pete Rose betting on the Cincinnati Reds when he played for and coached the team. Until recently, Rose had a lifetime ban from the game.

Trump did, however, say he has concerns more broadly about the expansion of prediction markets and gambling.

“You know, the whole world, unfortunately, has become somewhat of a casino. And you look at what’s going on all over the world and Europe, and every place they’re doing these betting things. I was never much in favor of it. I don’t like it conceptually, but it is what it is now,” Trump said last month.

Trump Media did announce last year that prediction markets would become available on the Truth Social website through Crypto.com . The company’s sole trustee is Donald Trump Jr. after Donald Trump transferred his majority shares into a revocable trust before taking office last year.

Due to concerns about the appearance of potential conflicts, last month the Senate also approved a bipartisan resolution that bans its members from using prediction markets.

“We must never allow Congress to turn into a casino where members representing the public can gamble on wars and economic crises or elections,” Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer, D-N.Y., said on the Senate floor when the resolution was introduced.