Trump notches more GOP primary wins, but big midterm questions remain

President Donald Trump flexed the strength of his party-transforming political movement again Tuesday, continuing the successful process of eliminating political enemies within the GOP this month.

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At the same time, Trump’s low approval ratings and the war with Iran have raised red flags in key Republican primaries among base voters who supported his “America First” agenda that included the idea of a focus on domestic issues.

Those red flags may persist with independent voters and base turnout alike when the general election gets underway in a few months.

But in the meantime, Trump continues to prove he can not only influence the Republican primary electorate, but also attack Republicans who have opposed him in any way without feeling there are significant negative consequences.

“I think what everyone can take away from this is that Donald Trump is going nowhere,” said a Trump adviser working for his political operation. “He has won and will continue to win.”

Trump this month defeated five Republican state senators in Indiana who opposed his push for mid-decade redistricting. Over the weekend, his political machine also blocked Sen. Bill Cassidy , who voted to convict him in his 2021 impeachment trial, from advancing in his primary in Louisiana, a state he has represented for two terms.

The biggest and most exciting win for the White House, though, came Tuesday: defeating Rep. Thomas Massie , the Kentucky Republican who opposed Trump on key issues, including on the “big, beautiful bill” tax and spending plan and on pushing for the release of files related to the late convicted sex offender Jeffrey Epstein.

Massie lost to Trump-backed Ed Gallrein, who got 54% of the GOP primary vote.

For months, Trump and his allies have attacked Massie, and they got their win Tuesday in the most expensive House primary in history in terms of ad spending.

“Thomas Massie is just the latest proof that being Democrats’ favorite Republican is not a badge of honor in our party,” James Blair, a former Trump administration official who now runs Trump’s political operation, told NBC News. “Goodbye and good luck with the cows.”

In an interview last month, Massie noted that, except for Cassidy in the Senate, he was one of few Republicans in Washington willing to cross Trump on principle and policy, even as he also usually voted with him on most issues. Massie added that the results of his race would determine how many more might follow his lead.

“There can always be this cascading effect,” Massie said. “It’s a big herd. The herd moves as a herd, right?”

Massie’s loss was met with disappointment in other corners of the GOP.

“What happened tonight is sad, to be honest,” said a veteran Republican strategist who has worked “with both the liberty and MAGA” movements and was granted anonymity to speak candidly about the Trump-fueled intraparty clash.

“This was a revenge tour on a solid conservative vote who refused to break to the will of Trump,” the person said. “Thomas Massie refused to be compromised. He refused to bend the knee, and for that he was taken out.”

Trump, however, did not outright win everything he touched Tuesday night.

In Georgia’s nationally watched race for governor, Trump-backed Lt. Gov. Burt Jones, who also has major GOP establishment backing in the state, moved on to a runoff against billionaire Rick Jackson , who has framed himself as a Trump ally.

Jackson has spent more than $80 million of his own fortune on TV ads, many of which have tied him to Trump, but Trump has been clear that he does not support Jackson, who is now headed to a runoff.

“There’s a lot of confusion. Everyone’s saying I endorsed them. I didn’t. I endorsed a man named Burt Jones, your lieutenant governor,” Trump said this month. “Vote for Burt Jones. He’s just an incredible guy who has my complete and total endorsement in the race.”

What’s unclear, however, is how Trump’s GOP primary dominance will play out in the midterm general election, with Republicans trying to hold on to slim House and Senate majorities. Democrats could take the House and are trying to challenge for the Senate, even as that is considered a much more difficult endeavor.

Some Senate Republicans think that what could be seen as a Trump “win” Tuesday, ahead of yet another primary, actually hurts Republican chances.

The most notable example is Texas Attorney General Ken Paxton, as of Tuesday the Trump-endorsed Senate candidate in his state. If he wins next week’s GOP primary runoff, as is expected, Paxton will enter the general election at a significant fundraising disadvantage against Democratic nominee James Talarico. And he also comes with significant political baggage, including a 2023 impeachment by the GOP-led state House before his acquittal in the Senate. Then there is the fact that his wife filed for divorce on “biblical grounds.”

A number of Republicans fear that Paxton was the inferior candidate compared with Sen. John Cornyn, and they believe national GOP groups will now have to spend money in Texas that otherwise could have been used to boost Republican Senate candidates in other key states.

“You don’t have to be a rocket scientist to figure out the pathway for Paxton is there, but it’s more uphill,” Sen Lindsey Graham, R-S.C., told reporters Tuesday afternoon.

Democrats need a net gain of four seats to flip the Senate — a tall order but one increasingly seen as doable because of Trump’s tanking approval ratings among independent voters.

It excites Democrats about their prospects of flipping the chamber.

“While the Texas GOP has been embroiled in a ‘bitter,’ ‘costly intraparty war’ that has fractured their base and left them drained of resources, Democratic enthusiasm has surged to its highest level in decades,” said Maeve Coyle, spokeswoman for the Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee.

“James Talarico is building the campaign to win, and Texans will send him to the U.S. Senate in November,” she said.