The biggest lesson from Trump’s retribution campaign: From the Politics Desk

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In today’s edition, Jonathan Allen shares his top takeaway from President Donald Trump’s efforts this month to unseat fellow Republicans. Plus, Natasha Korecki and Ben Kamisar report on the long-awaited unveiling of Democrats’ 2024 election postmortem.

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DNC releases 2024 autopsy as chair apologizes for ‘creating an even bigger distraction’

By Natasha Korecki and Ben Kamisar

Democratic National Committee Chair Ken Martin released the party’s autopsy report on the 2024 election after facing intense pressure to do so.

The report details problems that plagued the Democratic Party in the last presidential election, including messaging that “created tensions with key constituencies” on the economy, late-arriving efforts to organize voters on the ground, a lack of alignment between the party’s main super PAC and then-Vice President Kamala Harris ’ campaign, and more.

Meanwhile, the autopsy itself has already caused strains within the party. Martin had been pummeled in public for months after he promised to release the report and then reversed course in December.

“I could not in good faith put the DNC’s stamp of approval on the report that was produced,” Martin said in a statement today. “After last November’s massive Democratic wins, I didn’t want to create a distraction, but by not putting the report out, I ended up creating an even bigger distraction. For that, I sincerely apologize.”

Behind the scenes: Concerns had stretched to the top levels of the Democratic Party. Pennsylvania Gov. Josh Shapiro and Martin spoke about a week ago about the autopsy. At the time, according to two sources with knowledge of the call, Shapiro relayed he was unhappy that Martin had not released the report and was not being transparent. Martin was rattled by this call, according to the sources.

One DNC member said they thought the tipping point for Martin was when Harris called for the report’s release. Martin told people on a call this morning, according to a person with knowledge of the call, that when he saw that candidates were getting asked to respond about the situation, he realized it was a distraction that had now expanded. How the release got delayed: Martin had handpicked Democratic strategist Paul Rivera to take charge of the autopsy. Rivera was not paid to do the autopsy, Martin has said.

Among the hang-ups that had prevented the earlier release of the report: The DNC had demanded, but never received, a list of people who were interviewed, a source with knowledge of what transpired said.

The biggest lesson from Trump’s retribution campaign

Analysis by Jonathan Allen

It’s easy to draw two wrong conclusions from the defeats of Sen. Bill Cassidy , R-La., and Rep. Thomas Massie , R-Ky., after they ran afoul of President Donald Trump : Loyalty to Trump is the only factor that matters in Republican primaries, and his muscle flex is a show of real power heading into the midterms.

There can be no doubt that loyalty matters a lot to Trump and MAGA voters. But it’s not an insurance policy. Trump, as Republican operatives have explained for years, wants to endorse winners — in part because he understands that it makes him look more powerful to do so.

Earlier this week, Trump endorsed Texas Attorney General Ken Paxton over Sen. John Cornyn in their primary runoff. Cornyn didn’t vote to remove Trump from office after the Jan. 6 riots, as Cassidy did, nor did he act as a thorn in the president’s side on a wide variety of issues, like Massie did. Rather, Trump saw Cornyn on his way to a loss next week, so he got the boot.

Yesterday, Trump slammed Rep. Brian Fitzpatrick , R-Pa., who represents a swing district that is key to control of the House in the midterms. It could be argued that Fitzpatrick, who ran unopposed in his primary Tuesday, could use daylight between himself and an unpopular president to appeal to swing voters. But not in the heavy-handed way that Trump did it.

“He likes voting against Trump,” Trump said of Fitzpatrick. “You know what happens with that. It doesn’t work out well.”

Of the innumerable ways to make Fitzpatrick look more appealing to voters in his district, a thinly veiled threat to help knock him out of office is perhaps the least helpful. That’s because Republicans across the country need to limit the damage from an expected decline in the number of MAGA voters who show up to the polls in November. Trump gave permission to his base to turn their backs on Fitzpatrick.

Which leads to the sounder conclusion about Trump’s power in the wake of recent primaries. The only adversaries he clearly has the strength to beat right now are fellow Republicans. And he’s bent on showing he can do that — even if it means dashing the GOP’s midterm hopes.

Trump has alienated almost everyone outside the MAGA base, including many of the younger voters who helped put him back in the Oval Office, over the course of a year and a half. MAGA voters going to the polls in low-turnout primaries to unseat fellow Republicans proves that they are resilient — perhaps even more determined in the face of Democrats, independents and a small share of Republicans pushing back on him.

While they are an important component of the coalition the GOP needs in November, they’re not as valuable as the swing voters who are trending toward Democrats. Most of those voters won’t be impressed by Trump taking out his wrath on anyone who ever disagrees with him — since most of them disagree with him at times.

If Trump’s not careful, he could perpetuate a vicious cycle in which he seeks to demonstrate power by ousting Republicans, reducing his actual power in Washington if Democrats pick up seats as a result, making him even more compelled to project strength by targeting more Republicans.

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That’s all From the Politics Desk for now. Today’s newsletter was compiled by Adam Wollner.

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