Trump’s May primary scorecard: From the Politics Desk

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In today’s edition, we take stock of President Donald Trump’s retribution campaign this month as Ken Paxton and James Talarico look ahead to the general election in Texas. Plus, Andrea Mitchell digs into an under-the-radar shift in the Russia-Ukraine war.

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Trump’s May primary scorecard

President Donald Trump endorsed 10 challengers to incumbent Republicans in their primaries this month, seeking to further tighten his grip on the party as his poll numbers with the broader electorate continued to sag.

The almost-final tally, courtesy of Bridget Bowman : Trump ousted all but two of the GOP lawmakers who had crossed him, with one of the races still too close to call.

The latest result came last night in Texas , where state Attorney General Ken Paxton trounced longtime Sen. John Cornyn , 64%-36%, in a primary runoff. Trump endorsed Paxton just one week ago, even after Cornyn narrowly finished first, but short of a majority, in the initial March primary.

“I think it made it from a likely Paxton win, even though those of us who’ve been lifelong friends of John Cornyn were hoping for the opposite result, to an overwhelmingly likely win,” said George Seay , a longtime Cornyn friend and donor.

“Clearly the president has an impact on the base that has not been seen in our lifetime,” Seay added.As Sahil Kapur writes , Cornyn had tried to play up his loyalty to Trump on the campaign trail, and his voting record in the Senate was almost perfectly aligned with the president. But ultimately, it wasn’t enough. Behind Cornyn’s record, there was an institutionalist instinct and a paper trail of misgivings about some of Trump’s more controversial actions.

Cornyn’s defeat occurred in the wake of two other sitting Republican members of Congress who faced Trump-backed opponents, Sen. Bill Cassidy of Louisiana and Rep. Thomas Massie of Kentucky, losing renomination. Cassidy had voted to convict Trump in his 2021 impeachment trial, while Massie had been a persistent thorn in the president’s side on a number of issues.

And at the beginning of the month, five of the seven Indiana state senators Trump targeted for voting against his redistricting push were unseated in their GOP primaries. State Sen. Greg Goode survived his challenge, while the race between state Sen. Spencer Deery and Fountain County GOP Chairwoman Paula Copenhaver is headed for a recount , with the two candidates separated by 3 votes.

The bottom line , according to Bridget : It’s still Trump’s party, and he can take you down if he wants to.

On to November: Paxton is now set to face Democratic state Rep. James Talarico in a general election in Texas that could be key in the battle for the Senate majority. Democrats — and some Republicans — think Paxton’s long list of controversies could put the seat in the traditionally red state in play.

Paxton is already trying to cast Talarico as an out-of-touch liberal. In his victory speech last night, Paxton referred to his new opponent as “Tofu Talarico,” “six-gender Jimmy,” “James Tala-freako” and “low-T Talarico,” denouncing his positions on gender-affirming care, immigration, energy and religion.

In an interview today with NBC News’ Ryan Chandler , Talarico said that previous comments he’s made on sensitive cultural issues “missed the mark.”

“I’ll be the first to admit that I missed the mark on some of those old statements, but what Ken Paxton is doing is clipping my cringey comments to distract from his career of corruption,” Talarico said.

For subscribers: Incumbents in both parties are falling in primaries — but for very different reasons

Analysis by Scott Bland

In addition to Cornyn, two House Democrats in Texas lost their primaries last night: Veteran Rep. Al Green was defeated in a member-versus-member matchup by Rep. Christian Menefee , while former Rep. Colin Allred unseated first-term Rep. Julie Johnson .

In total, six members of Congress have lost renomination this year, already more than during the entire 2024 cycle. And there’s reason to believe it could get worse for entrenched incumbents.

The forgotten war

Analysis by Andrea Mitchell

While the United States is preoccupied with the latest twists and turns in finding an exit strategy for the war against Iran, a little-noticed shift of momentum has been taking place a continent away. In its fifth year of trying to hold off the invading Russian army, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy ’s innovative military has been transforming modern warfare with new autonomous drone-interception technologies.

Ukraine is now manufacturing thousands of these drones a day in factories all over Europe, weapons that are hitting Vladimir Putin ’s homeland where it hurts, including Moscow. It is also creating an export technology being sought after by Gulf state emirs to defend their infrastructure from Iran’s attacks. Last month, Ukraine announced new military sales to Saudi Arabia, Qatar and the United Arab Emirates after Zelenskyy toured the Gulf.

It proves the adage that necessity is, indeed, the mother of invention. For the past year, the Trump administration has demanded that Europe take the lead in arming Ukraine. And since the war against Iran, its Patriot missile batteries, already in short supply, are being diverted to defend the Gulf and Israel.

According to European and U.S. military experts, Ukraine regained territory from Russia in April, a notable turn of events. And the European Union says Russia is now losing 25,000-30,000 troops per month, more than it can recruit. Putin’s iron grip on the Russian media prevents that reality from reaching most of his country’s people. Nor does he need to worry about public opinion. But the mounting casualties cannot be kept secret from grieving family and friends for long.

Only a few months ago, it was Russia that was gaining ground on the battlefield. President Donald Trump was pressing Ukraine to accept a peace deal heavily favoring Putin after their summit in Anchorage, Alaska. That was before the U.S. and Israel launched their war against Iran, greatly depleting both their attention and military stockpiles.

Trump has also castigated NATO and America’s long-standing European allies for not joining his fight against Iran. In what was widely seen as punishment of German Chancellor Friedrich Merz for saying Iran had “humiliated” the U.S., Trump ordered the withdrawal of 5,000 U.S. troops from Germany, with more transfers to come. He has also speculated about leaving NATO altogether. That has led European leaders to seriously consider the prospect of losing the U.S. as their bulwark against potential aggression from Putin. They now see preventing a Russian victory over Ukraine as fundamental to their collective security.

Secretary of State Marco Rubio told reporters this week that there are “no active” negotiations “ongoing with Ukraine, but the U.S. is always prepared to play a constructive and helpful role if that opportunity helps itself.” Clearly, special envoy Steve Witkoff and Trump son-in-law Jared Kushner are otherwise occupied, and Trump’s campaign boast that he could resolve the conflict on his first day in office is long forgotten. Instead, the Europeans are considering naming their own envoy to engage Putin in talks.

Still, the Russian leader can inflict severe punishment. Over the weekend, Russia struck Ukraine’s capital with hypersonic missiles, one of the largest assaults on Kyiv and the surrounding region since the war began. The missiles can fly at speeds up to 8,077 miles per hour in a high trajectory before plunging down, making them difficult to intercept. Moscow’s assault also included ballistic and cruise missiles along with drones. The Kremlin said it was retaliation for Ukraine’s strikes against what it claimed were civilian targets inside Russia.

Significantly, Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov warned Rubio in advance of the strike that U.S. Embassy personnel could be endangered by the impending attack. A top former U.S. diplomat told NBC News it was surprising that the U.S. did not go immediately to the U.N. Security Council to try to prevent the assault. No protest has been heard from the administration. And the Europeans worry that if Putin feels he is losing, he will escalate further, threatening the Baltics and others in the neighborhood.

Meanwhile, the war in Ukraine doesn’t stop.

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That’s all From the Politics Desk for now. Today’s newsletter was compiled by Adam Wollner.

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