Voters select candidates in key House districts that could decide the majority

The ballots are set in two Republican-held battleground House races in Iowa, part of a slate of primaries Tuesday shaping the battle for control of Congress in the fall.

Get unlimited access to ad-free articles and exclusive content.

As far as the primaries were concerned, there wasn’t much suspense in the two districts expected to be most competitive in the fall.

Democratic former state Rep. Christina Bohannan will face off against GOP Rep. Mariannette Miller-Meeks for the third consecutive election in the southeastern part of the state, NBC News projects, following up on a 2024 election decided by just a few hundred votes. Meanwhile, Democratic state Sen. Sarah Trone Garriott and GOP Rep. Zach Nunn were unopposed in their primaries ahead of a major clash for the 3rd District, anchored in Des Moines.

A third Iowa House race could be competitive this fall: the 2nd District left open by Republican Rep. Ashley Hinson’s bid for the Senate. Former state Rep. Joe Mitchell, who is backed by President Donald Trump, is projected to win the Republican nod there, while the Democratic nominee will be state Rep. Lindsay James.

The House battleground will continue to come into focus as results in other states are tallied Tuesday night. In one key battleground race, Democrats in New Jersey selected Rebecca Bennett, a healthcare executive and former Navy helicopter pilot, as their nominee to take on GOP Rep. Tom Kean Jr. in the battleground 7th District.

Meanwhile, primary results in safer seats will also continue to transform Congress, from contests between different factions in the Republican and Democratic parties to incumbents battling for their political survival.

California’s key role shaping the House

California is home to four major battleground House races after state Democrats redrew the congressional lines as part of the national redistricting battle, and a handful of other districts could be competitive in the fall, too. In California, every candidate runs on the same ballot, regardless of party, and the top two vote-getters move on to the general election.

California’s 22nd District: The Fresno-area district, a perennial battleground, is home to Rep. David Valadao, who, if he is re-elected, would be the only Republican House member left who voted to impeach Trump in 2021. Valadao isn’t facing any Republican challengers in the primary, unlike in previous elections, so the battle for the second spot in the general election is between two Democrats with very different ideas of how to win a swing seat: establishment-backed state Assemblymember Jasmeet Baines and progressive local school board member Randy Villegas.

California’s 48th District: Another hotly contested battleground primary is in the San Diego area, which features a similar dynamic of two Democrats fighting for a shot to make the ballot in the fall against a Republican.

Redistricting moved this district from a safe Republican seat to a light-blue one, leading GOP Rep. Darrell Issa to retire instead of running again. Jim Desmond, the Trump-backed member of the San Diego County Board of Supervisors, is projected to advance to the general election. A crowded field of Democrats are vying to join him, with the most prominent being San Diego City Council member Marni von Wilpert and Ammar Campa-Najjar, who is making his third bid for Congress.

California’s 13th District: Democratic Rep. Adam Gray is running for re-election in a seat where Trump and then-Vice President Kamala Harris fought to a draw in 2024. The most prominent Republican here is former Stockton Mayor Kevin Lincoln, who lost a close race to Democratic Rep. Josh Harder in 2024 and is backed by Trump. Republican Vin Kruttiventi, who is self-funding his race, is also running.

California’s 6th District: This stretch of suburban Sacramento changed significantly in redistricting. Newly independent Rep. Kevin Kiley, who recently announced he would leave the Republican Party, is running against a crowded field of Democrats looking to move on to the general election.

California’s 1st District: Another formerly red seat turned blue by redistricting, this district has two former state legislative leaders — Democrat Mike McGuire and Republican James Gallagher — are projected to move on to the general election.

California 1st District special election: After the death of Republican Rep. Doug LaMalfa, there is also a special election for this seat, which will be held under the current lines, which are much more favorable to Republicans.

Gallagher, who is also running in this special election, is projected to eclipse 50%, which means he’ll win the race outright and avoid a runoff.

California’s 21st District: Democratic Rep. Jim Costa is likely to face off this fall against either Lorenzo Rios, a military veteran and veterans activist, or Kyle Kirkland, the president of the California Gaming Association, in this Fresno-area seat, which leans toward Democrats.

California’s 45th District: Freshman Democratic Rep. Derek Tran will face whoever emerges as the top choice of a crowded field of Republicans in another blue-leaning seat.

Other battleground races come into focus

New Jersey’s 9th District: Democratic Rep. Nellie Pou is running for re-election in a district Trump won by 1 point, but the wind will most likely be at her back when she faces off against her Republican opponent — either Clifton City Council member Rosie Pino or Tiffany Burress, an attorney married to longtime NFL player Plaxico Burress. The two are locked in a tight race.

Montana’s 1st District: This seat is on the fringe of the battleground after Trump carried it by 11 points in 2024. But the district will be open this fall because Republican Rep. Ryan Zinke is retiring.

Both parties’ primaries are crowded. Trump-backed Aaron Flint, a combat veteran and radio host, is projected to win the GOP primary over candidates like Secretary of State Christi Jacobsen and former state Sen. Albert Olszewski. The Democratic side includes 2024 gubernatorial nominee Ryan Busse; Sam Forstag, a firefighter backed by prominent progressives like Sen. Bernie Sanders, I-Vt., and Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez, D-N.Y.; and education advocate Russ Cleveland.

New Mexico’s 2nd District: Trump won this district by less than 2 points in 2024. Democratic Rep. Gabe Vasquez will run against Greg Cunningham, a former police officer backed by Trump, after the other Republican on the ballot dropped out and endorsed him.

Incumbents face threats to political careers

A bevy of incumbents in California face tough re-election bids, with Democratic challengers calling for leaders to pass the torch and two Republican lawmakers thrust into a brutal battle thanks to redistricting.

California’s 40th District: This member-on-member primary in the Riverside and Orange County area between Reps. Young Kim and Ken Calvert, prompted by redistricting, is one of the nastiest primaries in the country . Calvert is projected to move onto the general election, so the the big question remains whether both advance to the fall — or whether a Democrat, like Esther Kim Varet, will win one of those spots.

California’s 4th District: Democratic Rep. Mike Thompson, 75, faces a challenge in this Napa-area district from Democrat Eric Jones, a mid-30s venture capitalist who lent his campaign $5 million and has been making the generational argument against Thompson. Thompson is projected to advance, but it’s not yet clear whether Jones will join him.

California’s 7th District: Sacramento-area Democratic Rep. Doris Matsui, 81, faces another generational challenge from Sacramento City Council member Mai Vang, who is in her early 40s. While Matsui has the backing of powerful California Democrats like Gov. Gavin Newsom, Vang is backed by prominent progressive groups, as well as The Sacramento Bee’s editorial board. Matsui’s campaign had been asking outside groups to spend to lift up a Republican candidate in hope of squeezing Vang out of the general election.

California’s 32nd District: Rep. Brad Sherman, 71, fended off a crowded field of Democrats calling for a new direction, the most notable being Jake Levine, who worked in the Obama and Biden White Houses on climate policy. Sherman closed the door on Levine, however, and will instead face Republican Larry Thompson, an entertainment lawyer, in a deep-blue seat in the Malibu and Pacific Palisades area.

California’s 34th District: Democratic Rep. Jimmy Gomez, 51, faces a challenge from a Justice Democrats-backed candidate, community activist Angela Gonzales-Torres, who has criticized Gomez over his views on Israel policy. But Gomez has outraised her 5-to-1, and there has been no real ad spending aimed at boosting Gonzales-Torres in this Los Angeles district. It still remains unclear who will join Gomez in the general election.

California’s 41st District: Democratic Rep. Linda Sánchez fended off an intraparty challenge from former state Assemblyman Hector De La Torre and will advance to the general election against Republican Mitch Clemmons, a plumbing contractor, in a district Democrats are expected to hold.

Other key House races on the ballot

New Jersey’s 12th District: Rep. Bonnie Watson Coleman’s retirement turned this deep-blue seat into the next battleground for progressive groups looking to elect one of their own. Adam Hamawy, a surgeon whom Sen. Tammy Duckworth credits with saving her life in Iraq and was later stranded in Gaza during Israel’s war with Hamas, is projected to win the nomination, a big win for the progressive wing of the party. American Priorities, a group formed to counter spending by the American Israel Public Affairs Committee in Democratic primaries, has spent heavily in support of Hamawy in a race in which Israel policy has loomed large.

California’s 11th District: Former House Speaker Nancy Pelosi’s decision to retire sparked a competitive, three-way Democratic battle to replace her. State Sen. Scott Weiner, who has the state party endorsement, will advance, NBC News projects.

San Francisco Supervisor Connie Chan, backed by Pelosi, sits in second with significantly more votes than the other prominent Democrat, Saikat Chakrabarti, a former aide to Ocasio-Cortez who has the backing of a handful of progressive Democrats and groups. But the Decision Desk has not yet projected a second winner yet.

California’s 26th District: Democratic Rep. Julia Brownley is retiring from this southern California, safely Democratic district. State Assemblymember Jacqui Irwin is projected to be one of the two candidates who will move onto the general election here, with the second slot not yet determined.

California’s 38th District: Former Labor Secretary Hilda Solis is projected to move onto the general election in this district east of Los Angeles, as she looks to return to Congress — where she served before she joined the Obama administration. She’ll face off against Republican Pedro Casas, an army veteran, in a blue seat.

South Dakota’s At-Large District: The state’s lone congressional seat is open because Rep. Dusty Johnson is running for governor. Trump-backed Marty Jackley, the state’s attorney general, won the GOP primary.