Record number of young people fear long-term unemployment

Report says confidence among 16- to 21-year-olds has fallen sharply as they doubt hard work will be rewarded

Young people in England are increasingly “losing faith in their futures” according to a report, as record numbers fear long-term unemployment.

Analysing survey data, including from the Office for National Statistics, the Institute for Public Policy Research (IPPR) said 16- to 21-year-olds were less confident about being successful than a decade ago.

Younger people are also less convinced than their older counterparts that hard work will be rewarded, the IPPR said.

Just one in four 16- to 29-year-olds agreed with the statement that “everyone has a fair chance to go as far as their talent and hard work will take them”. That compared with 35% of 50- to 69-year-olds, and more than 40% of over-70s.

Policymakers have become increasingly concerned about the challenges facing young people, with the number of people aged 16 to 24 who are not in education, employment or training (Neets) recently exceeding 1 million for the first time in a decade.

The former Labour minister Alan Milburn is reviewing the question of how to reverse this rise in a review for the government, with his findings due later this year.

In a recent interim report, he warned that Britain was at risk of a “lost generation” and on track for a 25% rise in Neets, to 1.25 million, by 2030 if action was not taken – hinting that benefits changes may have to be part of the solution.

The IPPR argues that falling confidence in future opportunities is not just socially problematic, but can have a detrimental impact on the economy, by disincentivising young people from studying, working hard and trying to build up savings.

“Young people are telling us clearly that the deal no longer adds up,” said Ellie Harris, IPPR’s head of children and young people. “For too many, the promise that hard work will lead to security and opportunity no longer feels credible.

“This is not simply a crisis affecting a small minority. Confidence is falling across England , across social groups, and across genders.”

When 16- to 21-year-olds were asked in the long-running Understanding Society survey to rate their chances of future success, the proportion who chose 20% or less was just 2% in 2015-17, but had tripled to 6% by 2023-25.

The share who believed they had an 80%-plus chance of suffering long-term unemployment in their lifetime more than tripled, to 7%, over the same period.

The IPPR identifies a number of possible causes for this shift. “During the mid-2010s, several pressures were intensifying at once: the effects of austerity were becoming more visible, the online information environment was being reshaped by personalised algorithms, and young people’s mental health was beginning to deteriorate,” the paper says.

And it argues that young people may simply be “drawing reasonable conclusions from the conditions around them”, including rising youth unemployment and eyewatering housing costs.

The thinktank estimates that as many as four in 10 women and three in 10 men aged 16 to 24 have poor mental health. Among those affected, just 24% believe they have a good chance of succeeding in life, compared with 48% of their peers.

Separately, Keir Starmer is expected to announce restrictions on social media for under-16s in the coming days, amid fears about the impact on children’s mental health.

A government spokesperson said: “We recognise too many young people have been locked out of opportunity. That’s why we are bringing forward a £2.5bn youth employment support package to help almost 1 million young people either earn or learn.

“We are also expanding youth hubs to every corner of Great Britain to provide crucial skills, job and housing support for the future generation.”

The IPPR’s research is part of a wider project called State of a Generation, which is sponsored by the charities Youth Futures Foundation and Big Change, and by the fast food chain McDonald’s.