Democrats maintain an edge in the fight for Congress as Trump gets poor marks

President Donald Trump’s poor approval rating continues to weigh down his party ahead of the midterms — though the GOP has a slim measure of separation from the president, with Democrats holding a 5-point lead in the battle for control of Congress, according to a new national NBC News poll .

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The poll — which was sponsored by More Perfect, a nonpartisan nonprofit dedicated to advancing democracy — found 49% of registered voters say they prefer to see Democrats control Congress as a result of this year’s elections, compared to 44% who prefer Republican control and 7% who are unsure.

Independents lean toward Democrats by a 12-point margin, 46%-34%, as do majorities of Black and Latino voters, voters under 50 years old and those with a college degree. Republicans still have an edge among men, white voters and those without a college education.

That 5-point Democratic lead on the generic ballot is essentially even with the NBC News poll conducted in March, when Democrats had a 6-point lead. Looking at similar points in previous midterm election cycles, both parties were tied on the generic ballot in the May 2022 NBC News poll, while Democrats had a 10-point lead in the June 2018 NBC News poll.

“These are rocky numbers for Republicans, but they are not catastrophic,” said Republican pollster Bill McInturff of Public Opinion Strategies, who conducted the survey with Democratic pollster Jeff Horwitt of Hart Research Associates.

McInturff noted that Democrats held a larger advantage in recent “blue wave” years, like 2018. But Democrats also have a much smaller hill to climb to take the House this year: They need to net just three seats, even if redistricting has narrowed the battlefield.

Democrats do face a tougher battle to net the four Senate seats needed for a majority in that chamber, since they would have to win multiple states Trump won by double digits in 2024.

Horwitt, the Democratic pollster, noted there were some signs of cracks in the GOP base in the fight for Congress.

A higher share of voters (95%) who backed then-Vice President Kamala Harris in 2024 say they prefer a Democratic-controlled Congress, while 90% of Trump voters say they prefer a Republican-controlled Congress.

“Does this need to be 2018? No,” Horwitt said, referring to the election where Democrats netted 40 House seats. Horwitt added that Democrats “are still in a really good position, despite redistricting, to win seats.”

Democrats’ advantage in the battle for Congress comes as Trump’s approval rating has dropped to 42% among registered voters, the lowest mark of his second term in NBC News surveys. Trump previously dipped that low among registered voters in July 2020, in the depths of the coronavirus pandemic. (Among all adults, Trump’s approval rating stands at 39%.)

Trump continues to struggle significantly with independent voters, with two-thirds disapproving of his job as president.

Meanwhile, some groups that shifted toward Trump in the 2024 election — most notably young voters and Latino voters — are now registering sharply negative opinions of the president’s job performance. Among Latinos, 64% disapprove and 34% approve of Trump, while 77% of voters between ages 18 and 29 disapprove of Trump, compared to 21% who approve.

Republicans are still broadly sticking with Trump, with 82% approving of his job as president and 58% saying they “strongly” approve. But that GOP support has dropped since March, when 88% of Republicans approved of Trump’s job as president and 63% strongly approved.

The president’s low marks come as voters voice more pessimism about the direction of the country and some of its major institutions.

A majority of registered voters — 56% — say they believe America’s best years are behind it, compared to 40% who believe America’s best years are still ahead.

Those results are similar to when NBC News last asked the question in 2022. It’s the fourth consecutive time a majority of respondents have said they believe the country’s best years are behind it.

In the new poll, about 60% of Democrats and independents say America’s best years are in the past, while Republicans are split on the question. Majorities of white, Black and Latino voters believe America’s best years are behind it. Meanwhile, a handful of groups that lean Republican and more conservative, along with middle class voters of color, believe America’s best years are still yet to come.

There are similar trends across a different, related question, about achieving the “American Dream.” Almost 80% of voters say the American Dream is harder to attain now than it was a generation ago, while 17% say it’s about the same and only 5% say it’s easier to attain now.

The poll also details how voters have also soured on some major political institutions as they prepare to pass judgment in the midterms.

Half of voters say they have very little or no confidence in the federal government, particularly younger voters, while 18% say they have a great deal or quite a bit of confidence. And 58% of voters say they have very little or no confidence in Congress, while 11% say they have a great deal or quite a bit of confidence in Congress.

The NBC News poll surveyed 2,400 registered voters from May 29 to June 7 via a mix of telephone interviews and an online survey sent via text message. It has a margin of error of plus or minus 2 percentage points.