Zohran Mamdani’s clout, a double Trump endorsement and more on the line in Tuesday’s primaries

Just days after the ticker-tape parade celebrating the New York Knicks’ NBA championship, New Yorkers are gearing up for another major contest: Tuesday’s primaries, featuring several intense battles between Democratic members of Congress and upstart challengers.

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Those races, as well as a handful of Democratic House primaries in Maryland and one in Utah, are the latest proving ground in the battle between the different wings in the Democratic Party this year. Progressives are seeking to increase their foothold in Washington, including in a series of races that will test New York Mayor Zohran Mamdani’s sway among Democrats. And some of the most powerful and well-financed interest groups in politics are spending big in primaries at an inflection point for their issues in Washington.

Republicans will have some key races, too — most notably in South Carolina, where the Republican nomination in the open race for governor has gone to a runoff.

And both parties are setting up battleground races with primaries across New York, too.

Here’s what to watch in Tuesday’s primaries.

Millions in crypto, AI, pro-Israel spending flood key primaries

Two House primaries have drawn massive amounts of outside spending from key groups aligned with cryptocurrency, artificial intelligence companies and the American Israel Public Affairs Committee.

New York’s 12th District has turned into the stage for a clash between two warring outside groups backing different visions for AI policy. On one side is Leading the Future , a super PAC funded by leaders at OpenAI and an aligned venture capital firm. The group has criticized candidates pushing certain additional regulation on AI, especially at a state-by-state level. In this race, the group has sent at least $10 million to a super PAC that’s opposing Democratic state legislator Alex Bores, who has been a vocal proponent of AI regulations .

Another group, Jobs and Democracy PAC, has backed Bores. The group got significant support from Anthropic, another AI company that has framed itself as more concerned with AI dangers and regulation.

The other top candidate in the race is another Democratic state legislator, Micah Lasher, a former aide to Gov. Kathy Hochul, former New York Mayor Michael Bloomberg and retiring Rep. Jerry Nadler. Lasher, who got Nadler’s endorsement, has pointed to his record on issues like housing in the Legislature and has also received significant outside support from a group funded by Bloomberg.

But the race also features other prominent figures — including Jack Schlossberg, the Kennedy family scion endorsed by former House Speaker Nancy Pelosi, D-Calif., and George Conway, the former Republican lawyer who became a prominent critic of President Donald Trump .

Another race to replace a longtime Democratic member of Congress, Rep. Steny Hoyer, is also drawing tons of outside money into Maryland from the pro-Israel AIPAC and a pro-crypto super PAC. Both groups are supporting state Del. Adrian Boafo, Hoyer’s pick to succeed him.

The race also includes Harry Dunn, a former U.S. Capitol Police officer who responded to the Jan. 6, 2021, riot, who has raised more money from individuals than any other candidate and is backed by Pelosi. Quincy Bareebe, a home healthcare CEO who lent her campaign more than $5 million, is also running.

The pro-Israel United Democracy PAC has also given hundreds of thousands of dollars to groups involved in New York primaries.

A test of Mamdani-mentum

Mamdani’s political capital is on the line in three major primaries in the city , two of which feature Democratic incumbents.

Mamdani is backing progressive challengers to Reps. Dan Goldman and Adriano Espaillat in the state’s 10th and 13th districts, respectively, races that have turned contentious.

Goldman, who rose to political prominence as House Democrats’ lead counsel during Trump’s first impeachment, has the backing of Hochul and members of House Democratic leadership. But former City Comptroller Brad Lander has the backing of progressives like Mamdani and Sens. Bernie Sanders, I-Vt., and Elizabeth Warren, D-Mass.

The politics of Israel have loomed over the race. Goldman has been endorsed by AIPAC, but he also has the backing of J Street, the more liberal pro-Israel group, and has argued he has a “progressive” approach to Israel policy. Lander has been far more aggressive in his criticism of Israel’s conduct in its war against Hamas in Gaza, which he calls a genocide. Lander has also said he would support legislation to block certain arms sales to Israel, a bill progressives nickname “Block the Bombs.”

Meanwhile, Espaillat faces a challenge from Darializa Avila Chevalier, a democratic socialist. Espaillat and his allies bristle at those who frame it as a progressive-versus-establishment battle, given Espaillat’s history as a former undocumented immigrant who built a career pushing for immigrant rights and expanding affordable housing. He has support from Hochul, state Attorney General Letitia James, City Council Speaker Julie Menin, the Congressional Black Caucus and the state AFL-CIO.

But Avila Chevalier, a community activist and organizer, has framed her campaign as having more urgency that meets the moment, contrasting herself with Espaillat. Her platform includes abolishing ICE, criticism of Israel’s conduct during its war, support for the “Block the Bombs” bill and “Medicare for All” and promotion of national tenant protections. And her backers include Mamdani and the progressive Justice Democrats, as well as other allies.

Mamdani’s endorsement rankled some New York Democrats because he had previously said he would back Espaillat, as a person familiar with the conversations confirmed to NBC News . And in the final weeks of the campaign, Espaillat and his allies have hammered Avila Chevalier over controversial past social media posts .

Then there’s the open seat in the 7th District, being vacated by the retiring Nydia Velázquez. She’s backing Brooklyn Borough President Antonio Reynoso, a progressive leaning on his record on policing, the environment, housing and other issues while calling to abolish ICE and backing “Medicare for All.” Mamdani is among those backing state Assemblymember Claire Valdez, a democratic socialist calling for a dramatic expansion of unions, a “public option for housing” and “Medicare for All” while arguing Israel is committing “genocide” and also calling to abolish ICE.

More tests for Trump

Trump’s favored candidates largely cruise through Republican primaries, but he has had a few high-profile setbacks in recent weeks. This time, he protected against a potential loss by double-endorsing in a key race.

In South Carolina, Trump endorsed Lt. Gov. Pamela Evette before the initial June 9 gubernatorial primary, and she advanced to the GOP runoff by finishing first with 29% of the vote, followed by state Attorney General Alan Wilson, at 26%.

But since then, lower-finishing candidates have endorsed Wilson, and Trump followed up last week with a new dual endorsement of both Wilson and Evette in the runoff.

In upstate New York, Trump is backing businessman Anthony Constantino to fill the 21st District, which is represented by the retiring Elise Stefanik. Constantino gained prominence in conservative circles for a series of pro-Trump stunts, like erecting a massive “Vote for Trump” sign on top of a building in 2024.

He’s running against state Assemblyman Robert Smullen, a combat veteran who points to an appointment to the President’s Commission on White House Fellows as a way to burnish his Trump credentials.

Democrats will face long odds trying to win here in November after Trump carried the seat in 2024 by 21 points. The primary is between farmer Blake Gendebien and businessman Stuart Amoreill.

Trump is also backing three incumbents in Utah — GOP Reps. Blake Moore, Celeste Maloy and Mike Kennedy. Moore and Maloy face primary challenges .

Other incumbents under pressure

Maryland’s 6th District is home to another incumbent fighting a primary challenger. Democratic Rep. April McClain Delaney is battling former Rep. David Trone, who gave up his spot in Congress for an unsuccessful bid for the Senate. Both candidates are independently wealthy: Trone has lent his campaign $25 million, while Delaney has chipped in about $10 million.

Trone has been lambasting Delaney on immigration, criticizing her vote on the Laken Riley Act and accusing her of green-lighting Trump’s ICE. Delaney has been leaning on her endorsements from most of Maryland’s top Democrats (Gov. Moore, Sens. Chris Van Hollen and Angela Alsobrooks, the state congressional delegation and national House Democratic leadership) and reviving past attacks on Trone’s past donations to Republicans as part of his business career.

In New York, a handful of other Democratic incumbents — Reps. Grace Meng, Yvette Clarke and Ritchie Torres — face primary challengers, too, but they haven’t gained as much traction as many of the others in more high-profile races.

The impact of redistricting

Two primaries Tuesday stem directly from the national battle over redistricting in the past year, which has played out very differently in different states.

In Utah, Democrats now have a strong chance to break the GOP’s hold on the state’s congressional delegation thanks to a court-ordered redraw of the lines that created a blue seat in Salt Lake City. Former Rep. Ben McAdams, who previously represented a Utah swing district, is the top fundraiser in the race and has leaned on his experience while framing himself as a progressive who can get results. State Sen. Nate Blouin is looking to consolidate the progressive vote, leaning on big-name endorsers, including Sanders, and his support of policies like “Medicare for All.” But his campaign has been hampered by revelations he wrote a slew of demeaning posts on internet message boards .

Other candidates in the Democratic primary include attorney Michael Farrell and political newcomer Liban Mohamed, who won the vote of delegates at the party’s state convention .

And in Maryland’s 46th Senate District, state Senate President Bill Ferguson faces his first serious primary challenger in South Baltimore in 12 years after he made national headlines for refusing to support a new partisan redistricting push in the state.

Army veteran and community activist Bobby LaPin is running to Ferguson’s left, accusing him of not fighting hard enough against Trump and not prioritizing his constituents in his post as Maryland’s top legislative leader. Democratic Gov. Wes Moore, who has clashed with Ferguson on redistricting, snubbed his re-election campaign when he rolled out a list of local endorsements last month. But Moore hasn’t gone as far as to endorse LaPin.

Battleground primaries

The top battleground on the map Tuesday is in New York’s 17th District, where GOP Rep. Mike Lawler’s campaign is expected to be one of the more closely watched and expensive races of the cycle. Local politician Beth Davidson and former cybersecurity official Cait Conley are the top candidates in a contentious Democratic primary, while Lawler prepares for the general election in a district that then-Vice President Kamala Harris carried in 2024.

Davidson is a Rockland County legislator and former school board official who is framing herself as a battle-tested candidate. She is also Jewish and has talked about being a “ strong voice for Israel ” while opposing Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and some of the actions taken by his Israeli government.

Conley is an Army veteran and former National Security Council official who worked at the Cybersecurity and Infrastructure Security Agency during the 2024 election. Her campaign touts that service, although her opponents have attacked her over past work with defense contractors. She has gotten a boost on the airwaves from VoteVets.

In the nearby 19th District, freshman Democratic Rep. Josh Riley will be on defense in a district Harris won by less than 2 points in 2024, the year Riley narrowly defeated a Republican incumbent. But the primary may not be as interesting as the general election, as state Sen. Peter Oberacker has Trump’s endorsement and is the top GOP fundraiser by far.

Republicans want to go on offense in two Long Island swing seats represented by Democrats Tom Suozzi and Laura Gillen. Primary challenges against both incumbents have sputtered, leaving the GOP primaries as the main contests there.

Trump-backed former Assemblyman Michael LiPetri is running again in the 3rd District after he narrowly lost to Suozzi last cycle, but he faces conservative lawyer and Air Force veteran Gregory Hatch in a primary.