Report warns Russia using shadow fleet to probe NATO drone defenses

As NATO allies prepare to meet in Turkey, at the top of their agenda will be drone warfare and Russia's testing of the NATO alliance.

Using its shadow fleet of old sanction-busting ships, Russia appears to have launched drones at European military bases and airports to test the reaction time of NATO allies and their air defenses, according to a new report published by the International Institute of Strategic Studies, or IISS.

Between August 2024 and February 2026, 144 suspected drones were recorded near sensitive military and nuclear sites in Germany, France, Belgium, the Netherlands, the UK, and Denmark, and over American air bases in the UK in November 2024.

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"There's no doubt in my mind that the Russians are using the shadow fleet vessels as a platform to get different types of drones in closer to various European countries," said Ret. Lt. Gen. Ben Hodges, who served as the commanding general of US Army Europe until 2018.

In Germany there were more than 1,000 suspicious drone sightings in 2025, over German defense companies and military bases where Ukrainian soldiers were training in Germany.

"Whoever is doing it is testing the reaction of the authorities, is testing how the public will respond, will they panic, will they blame their politicians and the authorities," asked Elisabeth Braw of the Atlantic Council. "Also they are testing perhaps to see how we as European countries or how European countries might react in a real crisis there."

This spate of unmanned aerial vehicles occurred in air space over a dozen NATO states and Ireland, the report states, "forcing repeated closures of major commercial aviation hubs, disrupting military operations and penetrating the perimeters of some of Europe’s most sensitive defence installations."

In 2025, mystery drones targeted military bases in the Netherlands and Belgium where the US is thought to base its B61-12 nuclear gravity bombs and France’s ballistic-missile submarine base at Île Longue.

"It's a combination of espionage," Hodges said. "But also psychologically to create a lot of anxiety in populations to scare them so that they would put pressure on their governments not to support Ukraine."

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The Russian drone campaign appears designed to probe the response times and decision-making thresholds of allied air defense and civil-military command structures.

It also seeks to identify vulnerabilities in critical infrastructure, including dual-use civilian facilities, military logistics hubs supporting Ukraine, and sites associated with the Alliance's nuclear deterrence.

Additionally, the campaign aims to impose economic and psychological costs on European societies by disrupting civilian aviation, undermining public confidence in airspace security, and fostering distrust and panic. Finally, it appears intended to normalize low-level airspace violations that remain below the threshold likely to trigger a direct Allied military response.

Those sightings peaked in late 2025, and forced the temporary closure of several European airports, including in Germany, Spain and Denmark.

Sweden is the only European country to accuse Moscow directly after a drone launched at sea from a Russian spy ship flew near a French aircraft carrier.

Russian President Vladimir Putin has denied accusations of Russian sabotage and surveillance across Europe.

"What’s the point of all this," Putin asked of reporters recently. "Name even one proven fact."

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But IISS tracked the locations of Russia's shadow fleet of ships used to evade sanctions and linked them to recent high-profile drone incidents, concluding that Russia could use the ships as a platform to launch the drones while creating deniability. Drones often don't trigger radar.

On Jan. 3, 2025, a Russian shadow fleet vessel, the Arctica, sailed along the Danish coast, while 20 drones flew over the port of Koege, Denmark, before disappearing at sea.

On Sept. 22, drone sightings led to the closure of Copenhagen Airport. The IISS found several shadow ships were in the area at the time, including the Arctica and the Boracay.

And it is not just in Europe. Dozens of unexplained drone sightings also have taken place in the U.S. in the past several years.

In December 2023 at Virginia's Joint Base Langley-Eustis unauthorized aircraft appeared in the skies above the base for 17 days straight, evading military tracking and forcing the Pentagon to bring in specialized assets — including a NASA WB-57 high-altitude jet — to investigate.

In March drones flew near Barksdale Air Force Base in Louisiana, home of the B- 52 H Stratofortress bomber, where drones came in a pattern to suggest they were attempting to avoid the operator or operators being located. Lights on the drones suggested the operators may be testing security responses at the base.

Panicked sightings of drones near critical infrastructure along the East Coast of the United States in late 2024 led to the Trump administration ordering the declassification of these investigations shortly after the inauguration to ease public concern, concluding the drones were mostly those of hobbyists and that there was no evidence of a foreign threat related to the majority of reported sightings.

The IISS says these are no hobbyists threatening NATO allies in Europe, with the most likely culprit launching the drones from shadow vessels at sea.