What forecasters expect this hurricane season, as Tropical Storm Bertha edges along

This NOAA satellite image taken at 10:30 a.m. EDT on Tuesday, July 21, shows Tropical Storm Bertha moving along the Gulf of Mexico's northern coast. NOAA via AP hide caption

A tropical storm watch was extended Wednesday morning for southwestern Louisiana through the upper Texas coasts as the second named storm of the year continues to move westward through the Gulf.

Tropical Storm Bertha is expected to track along the northern Gulf Coast for several days, hitting Gulf communities with up to four feet of storm surge and sustained winds as high as 50 miles per hour, according to the National Weather Service .

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Weather forecasting models do not predict the storm will get stronger, says Phil Klotzbach, a senior researcher in the Department of Atmospheric Science at Colorado State University. That's in part because of strong wind shear from the northeast. It's essentially a change in wind speed or direction over a short distance. The wind shear, which will push the bulk of the weather offshore, will also reduce the rainfall totals, said Jamie Rhome, the deputy director of the National Hurricane Center.

"We're not expecting a big flood event like we normally would with a slow-moving system," Rhome said. "As long as that continues to play out, Louisiana especially, could dodge some of the worst of the impacts."

A coastal flood warning is in effect for the coastlines of Mississippi and Louisiana. Isolated areas of flash flooding are possible early Friday from western Florida to southern Texas, according to the NWS .

Click on the links for more information on Tropical Storm Bertha in your region: New Orleans , Alabama , North Central Florida , Austin and Houston .

Unusually warm Gulf waters increase risk of powerful storms

Forecasts from the National Hurricane Center and Colorado State University predict fewer storms than average during the 2026 hurricane season. That's in part because of a strong El Niño . This weather pattern drives up average global temperatures and generally tamps down hurricane activity in the Atlantic.

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But abnormally warm temperatures in the Atlantic can also increase the likelihood of stronger storms, says Jeff Berardelli, chief meteorologist and climate specialist at WFLA-TV in Tampa Bay, Fla. Atmospheric conditions play a large role, but Berardelli compares the warm water's impact on storms to fuel for a car.

"The Gulf is high octane water for a storm right now because it's warmer than normal," Berardelli said.

Sea surface temperatures are unusually high in the part of the Atlantic where hurricanes are born. Temperatures are higher in part because the oceans have absorbed most of the extra heat trapped by planet-warming pollution from burning oil, gas and coal.

In the last 30 years, while the numbers of hurricanes have decreased, the percentage of more powerful category 4 and 5 hurricanes has increased, said Klotzbach, from Colorado State University.

"Overall, very broad brush, when you have warmer waters, that does tend to load the dice towards stronger storms," Klotzbach said.

Being prepared for hurricane season

The biggest piece of advice: make an evacuation plan ahead of time, according to Ready.gov , a site run by the U.S. Department of Homeland Security. People should know where to go in an emergency and how to get there. They should also consider the elderly, disabled neighbors and loved ones who may need assistance.

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People should also check their insurance policy to determine how much coverage they have in the event their home is damaged or destroyed by a hurricane. Homeowners should also check the size of their deductible – it's how much money they'll have to pay out of pocket before the insurance company picks up the rest of the tab for a claim.

It's also important to document valuables and have up-to-date records to file insurance claims.

Rhome, from the National Hurricane Center, cautions that people should not underestimate the potential power of the 2026 storm season just because the El Niño weather pattern is expected to limit the number of storms.

"We need to continue to prepare for hurricane season just like any other," he said.

A previous version of this story incorrectly said that Tropical Storm Bertha has made landfall. In fact, the storm is still offshore.