Primaries in the Midwest have become a high stakes proving ground for progressives

An attendee props up a sign with Democratic U.S. Senate candidate Abdul El-Sayed's slogan highlighting his progressive policy of Medicare for All on July 25 in Ferndale, Mich. Emily Elconin/Getty Images hide caption

The Democratic primary for Michigan's 7th Congressional District puts the high stakes for the party in the midterm elections on full display. The district is one of just 18 toss-up districts, making the Republican-held seat a top target for Democrats trying to retake the House.

That's why it has attracted candidates including a former U.S. ambassador to Ukraine, a retired Navy Seal and William Lawrence, a co-founder of the climate activist group the Sunshine Movement.

Lawrence thinks his outsider approach and willingness to criticize his own party is just what this competitive district needs to win in November.

"What I hear is people are fed up," Lawrence said in an interview with NPR. "They're ready for change and they don't feel that either party has been representing their interests in DC."

This year, far left challengers have notched upset wins against Democratic incumbents in deep blue congressional districts from New York to Colorado.

That brand of progressive politics is about to get its biggest test yet, in midwestern swing states and competitive districts that could decide control of Congress. Democrats voting in primaries this month in Michigan, Wisconsin and Minnesota are wrestling with a question that has divided the party going back at least to 2016.

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It's about who has a better shot of winning in purple states and toss-up districts: a populist progressive outsider or a moderate favored by the Democratic establishment.

Lawrence, whose campaign is centered on the economy, opposing AI data centers and keeping money at home instead of funding foreign wars, argues that the conventional wisdom about moderation being the key to electability is all wrong.

"I believe that the status quo is an electability risk at a time when people are hungry for change," said Lawrence.

Primary election voters are only a small motivated subset of those who will vote in November. But the message this year is loud and clear. Voters are angry and incumbents are facing significant opposition.

"Democratic voters are really rejecting people who reek of playing it safe," said Lis Smith, a Democratic consultant who has worked with candidates in Michigan. She says voters appear willing to take a risk on candidates whose public statements and policy positions could be liabilities in a general election.

"It seems like that is a tradeoff that Democratic primary voters in places like Michigan are willing to accept," Smith said.

"When people are angry, sometimes they go with their heart over their head. And the reality is none of us know how it's going to play out in November," she added.

Since 2016, Michigan has proven to be an ultimate swing state. The current Democratic senator is retiring this year and if Democrats have any hope of taking control of the Senate, they need to keep Michigan in their column.

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Primary polls show former public health official Abdul El-Sayed in the lead. His campaign is very much anti-establishment. His campaign slogan is "Money out of politics. Money in your pocket. Medicare for all."

The other candidate in the race is four-term Rep. Haley Stevens, who is favored by the party establishment. Recent polls have shown her with a better chance of winning in the general election in November.

Establishment Democrats say nominating El-Sayed is too much of a risk because some of his positions could be painted as extreme. It all makes Neera Tanden at the Center for American Progress nervous.

She notes far left candidates have proven quite effective at defeating incumbent Democrats in blue states where there's little risk of a competitive general election vote.

"The real question in swing states is can they beat Republicans, which heretofore has been untested," said Tanden.

But those in the insurgent wing of the party say playing it safe is the real electability problem.

"Those who are nervous are operating off of very outdated conventional wisdom," said Adam Green, co-founder of the Progressive Change Campaign Committee. He thinks this race could influence who Democrats will feel comfortable nominating for president in 2028.

"If Abdul wins the primary, it sends shockwaves across the Democratic party and makes clear that you can buck the corporate interests and still defeat them," Green predicted. "And then if he wins the general election it sends a signal to scared, well-meaning, electability voters that someone who actually inspires them can win a swing state."

He describes this as a "chips on the table" moment, because if progressive candidates in swing states end up losing that could deal a blow to their argument about electability.

With voter anger at the political system palpable, he says it would be a mistake to bet against outsider candidates who tap into those feelings.

Former Rep. Peter Meijer, a Republican from Michigan, agrees with the sentiment, even if he disagrees with their progressive politics.

"They are ascendant," Meijer said of the insurgent Democrats. "And everybody else is just scrambling to figure out how not to get left behind."

In part, he says, it's because these candidates stand for something more than simply opposing President Trump at a time when it's becoming clear Democrats can't just "coast on the fumes" of anti-Trump anger.

"The enthusiasm in the primaries, Donald Trump's name is barely coming up," Meijer noted.

Supporters cheer during a campaign rally for Wisconsin gubernatorial candidate Francesca Hong on Aug. 2 in Milwaukee. Joshua Lott/Getty Images hide caption

In neighboring Wisconsin, Francesca Hong, who previously aligned with the Democratic Socialists of America, has what appears to be a commanding lead in the gubernatorial primary. Meanwhile, the establishment lane in that race has been a topsy turvy effort to consolidate behind a single candidate. Voting ends there next week.

Hong has focused extensively on the issue of data centers and says she's been able to reach across party lines as a result.

Many Republicans assume Hong winning the primary would be good for their nominee, but Wisconsin's former Republican governor, Scott Walker says they shouldn't be so sure.

Because, he says, a candidate who speaks with authenticity can attract swing voters. Walker isn't saying the far left candidates will win in Wisconsin and Michigan. But he argues it would be a mistake to think they can't.

"I've been forewarning that just because [Hong's] said some wild, wild, wild things, in the end, I always raise a red flag of concern as a conservative that you've got to watch out for people with passion," Walker said.