Jobs report is expected to show a pickup in hiring — but with stagnant wages

The U.S. economy shed 23,000 jobs in July, a sign that the labor market had not stabilized after four months of positive growth.

The unemployment rate ticked down only slightly to 4.1%.

Economists surveyed by Dow Jones were expecting the release to show 83,000 added roles, more than June’s 57,000.

In yet another troubling sign for the labor market, the Bureau of Labor Statistics said that it revised down the prior two months by a combined 103,000. May’s jobs total was cut by 66,000 to 129,000 total jobs added, while June’s total was lowered by 37,000 to a total gain of 57,000.

The hiring data comes against a complicated economic backdrop . The U.S. war with Iran continues without any kind of agreement to fully reopen the Strait of Hormuz. As a result, energy prices remain elevated, even if they are off their highest levels of the year.

The change in workers’ average hourly earnings also fell well short of economists’ expectations. Wage growth was 0.1% from June, or 3.2% from one year ago. That’s also below inflation, which was 3.5% in its most recent reading.

Economists had been expecting wages to continue pacing at 3.5% from a year ago, but instead wage growth slowed.

“The labor market is stalling again,” wrote Heather Long, chief economist at Navy Federal Credit Union, who called the report “bleak.”

In a post on X, Long also pointed to another troubling data point: The labor force participation rate in July was the lowest since February 2021, a sign that workers are dropping out of the workforce.

The average price of regular gasoline also remains high, at $4.04 per gallon as of Friday morning, up 36% since Feb. 28, when the Iran war began. Inflation remains well above the Federal Reserve’s 2% target at 3.5%. Wages are struggling to keep pace.

The BLS said employment contracted the most in “local government education,” which declined by 50,000 roles, likely reflecting teachers during summer break. It also flagged a contraction of 19,000 roles in the retail industry. The financial industry shed 14,000 roles.

“In July, employment in health care continued its upward trend,” the BLS said, noting a gain of 22,000 jobs. But it said, that was “a slower pace than the average monthly gain over the prior 12 months.”

Stock futures rose sharply in the immediate aftermath of the report, as investors who were concerned the Federal Reserve would raise interest rates breathed a sigh of relief. S&P 500 futures were up 0.5% and Nasdaq 100 futures were up 1%.

Bond yields dropped, with the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield falling sharply to 4.6%. That Treasury bond specifically drives the direction of consumer lending rates, such as for mortgages, credit cards and personal loans.