Francesca Hong and David Crowley battle for the lead in Wisconsin’s Democratic primary for governor

Milwaukee County Executive David Crowley has won the Democratic primary in Wisconsin’s race for governor, NBC News projects, dealing a major upset to democratic socialist Francesca Hong.

The result marks a dramatic turnaround for Crowley, who had dropped out of the race roughly a month ago after initially struggling to gain traction only to re-enter days later with outgoing Democratic Gov. Tony Evers’ endorsement.

Hong, a state lawmaker from Madison, had led in the polls in the final stretch of the race, but faced growing scrutiny over her past controversial positions and general election viability. Her loss is a setback for progressives, who have found success in other high-profile primaries around the country this year against establishment-backed candidates.

Crowley will face Republican Rep. Tom Tiffany, who is backed by President Donald Trump, in a general election that will be one of the marquee gubernatorial matchups this fall. Crowley took 39.8% of the Democratic primary vote to 39.4% for Hong with 98% of the expected vote tallied.

Crowley, 40, has served as Milwaukee County executive since 2020. Before that, he was a member of the state Assembly representing an urban Milwaukee district. As recently as late July, he was in the single digits in the well-regarded Marquette University Law School poll , with a large plurality of voters behind Hong, but more than a third saying they were still undecided.

His victory marks the final unexpected development of a volatile primary that had long lacked a clear front-runner.

Lt. Gov. Sara Rodriguez, who some Democrats expected would emerge as a leading centrist contender, abruptly dropped out of the race in mid-July amid campaign finance reporting issues. A few weeks later, former Lt. Gov. Mandela Barnes , a progressive who was the party’s 2022 Senate nominee, ended his bid.

In between those moves, Crowley relaunched his campaign after initially struggling to gain traction in a crowded field, part of a last-ditch push by moderate Democrats to find an alternative to Hong.

Evers, a popular governor who chose not to run for a third term, went to bat for Crowley on the campaign trail, arguing that he was the most electable candidate in the primary.

The message seemed to land with some voters. Ali Plummer of Madison told NBC News that she “voted for Crowley because I am a risk-averse person, and I really was reading a lot about who has the chances to beat Tom Tiffany in the larger election.”

But Plummer was part of a “split-vote couple” with Shawn Bass, who voted for Hong.

“I really think that she has a great platform for talking about universal healthcare, talking about universal childcare,” Bass said.

Crowley’s campaign and allied outside groups also spent $4 million on ads during the primary, according to AdImpact — well more than any of his Democratic rivals. By comparison, the Hong campaign and groups supporting her spent less than a half-million dollars on ads.

Crowley faced some of his own controversies. Shortly after he re-entered the race, NBC News reported on a years-old social media account registered to him featuring incendiary posts about women and race, along with derogatory LGBTQ references.

But the focus in the closing weeks of the primary was on Hong, who faced concerns over her ability to win in November in one of the most closely divided states in the country.

She walked back her past calls to defund and abolish the police, eliminate the U.S. Senate and cancel Thanksgiving. And while she has been fiercely critical of Israel and its leaders over the war in Gaza, she did not make the issue a central part of her campaign message, as other progressives have.

Still, Hong did not shy away from the democratic socialist label and held a rally with left-wing streamer Hasan Piker and Rep. Ilhan Omar, D-Minn., one of the more liberal members of the House. Notably, Hong did not receive endorsements from the country’s leading democratic socialist voices, Sen. Bernie Sanders, I-Vt., and Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez., who have waded into other contentious Democratic primary fights.

Hong also faced very few attacks from her Democratic rivals. In the only debate of the primary late last month, none of her opponents directly criticized her. On the airwaves, a pro-Crowley outside group only started running a TV ad targeting Hong in the closing days of the race, saying her “record is a distraction we can’t afford.”

Meanwhile, a group tied to the Republican Governors Association has spent nearly $3 million on ads casting her as too liberal — an apparent effort to boost the party’s preferred general election opponent in the primary.

Candidates aside from Hong and Crowley played a significant role on Tuesday, pulling a combined 20% of the vote. They included Rodriguez and Barnes, who were each taking nearly 4% support. A Wisconsin judge had ruled that voters who returned absentee ballots could not request new ones, even if the candidates they backed were no longer in the race.

Progressive state Sen. Kelda Roys was in third place, just shy of 8%.

On the GOP side, Tiffany — who has represented the 7th Congressional District, which comprises much of the northern part of the state, since 2020 — easily won the party’s gubernatorial nomination.

In a speech to supporters, Tiffany said, “Stand with me as we protect the Wisconsin way of life, and stand with me as we move Wisconsin forward.”

Democrats have held Wisconsin’s governorship since 2019, and are hoping to flip control of at least one state legislative chamber for the first time since the 2010 election.

The winner of the Crowley-Tiffany matchup will hold power during the 2028 presidential election. Tiffany voted against certifying Joe Biden’s 2020 victories in Arizona and Pennsylvania as a member of the House.

If Crowley wins in November, he would the first Black governor in Wisconsin history.