Fever at Dream best bet: Why Atlanta can cover the spread even if Caitlin Clark plays

I know Caitlin Clark is the better player and bigger star in the WNBA, but her rivalry with Angel Reese is one of the biggest in women’s basketball, and it’s great for the sport.

It dates back to college when Reese’s LSU Tigers beat Clark’s Iowa Hawkeyes in the 2023 NCAA Championship, and Clark got revenge in the Elite Eight a year later.

Unfortunately, there’s a chance she doesn’t play when her Indiana Fever (22-12) visit Reese’s Atlanta Dream (21-12) at State Farm Arena Sunday at 5 p.m. Clark limped off the court in the first half of the Fever’s 98-87 home win over the Dallas Wings Friday.

CAITLIN CLARK OVERCOMES INJURY SCARE, DROPS 29 POINTS ON DALLAS WINGS AS FEVER TAKE TOP SPOT IN EAST

She was sensational Friday, shooting 11-for-18 from the field and dishing 10 assists to one turnover. Maybe adrenaline helped her finish the game, but Clark has been on the injury report with back issues the past few games, and I could see her getting a day off Sunday.

Best Bet: Atlanta Dream -1.5 (-131) at Kalshi

Even though Clark has an -8.2 on/off net rating this season, she has been hoopin' post-All-Star break, averaging 24.9 points on 49.5% shooting with 9.4 assists per game.

So, obviously, Indiana is not better without CC. She is averaging 23.0 points on an above-average 48.1% shooting in three games vs. Atlanta.

However, Reese is averaging 16.7 points on 51.4% shooting and 9.7 rebounds in her three meetings with Clark this season.

And, just like in college, Reese’s team is beating Clark’s. The Dream are 2-1 straight up and against the spread vs. the Fever this year and have won their last two meetings.

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Now, Indiana is the best shooting team in the WNBA.

But Atlanta has an edge in the other three factors of the game, such as rebounding, turnovers and free-throw discrepancy, which are more predictive of winning basketball.

The Dream are beating the Fever in those three factors in their meetings this year. This game is in Atlanta, and most teams shoot better at home.

Indiana scores nearly eight fewer points per game on the road and shoots worse from everywhere on the floor. Of course, the Dream scores nearly eight more points per game at home and shoots much better from behind the arc.

Meanwhile, the Dream have a rest edge. Their last game was a 104-69 win over the Connecticut Sun Thursday, and Indy played Dallas Friday.

Atlanta had a rest edge in its 108-101 home win over Indiana earlier this year, and Clark played in that game, scoring 26 points and throwing a game-high seven assists.

If CC can’t play Sunday, that sucks for the fans, and I hope she returns next game, but that’s good for my Atlanta bet. If Clark does play, I still like the Dream’s chances of covering the spread, and I feel like gambling, so to speak.

They are a physical team, and tough to play with a rest deficit. Atlanta dominates the glass on both ends of the floor and scores the most paint points per game by taking the highest rate of field goals within three feet of the hoop.

Basically, the Dream are a good bet up to -4 because they should win the "battle of possessions," could get a home whistle from the refs, and the Fever shoot worse on the road.

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