Public in England and Wales wrongly think most killers are minority ethnic

Research from King’s College London finds that Reform voters’ perceptions were furthest from the truth

The public overestimate how many minority ethnic people are killers, as well as how many foreign national offenders there are, a new study has found.

The research from King’s College London tested knowledge and perceptions of crime at a time when radical right parties are trying to link offending to ethnicity and nationality to gain votes.

YouGov’s survey of 1,800 people in England and Wales found that people thought 55% of convicted killers were from an ethnic minority, when the real percentage is 35%.

They also thought just 45% of homicides were committed by white people, when the real figure is 64%.

Reform voters were furthest from the truth, believing 70% of killers were from ethnic minorities – 10% more than voters of any other party.

The academics who conducted the survey said feelings about levels of crime and who was to blame were a reflection of people’s emotions, rather than the facts.

Public estimates of foreign national offenders show why crime could be fertile ground for the far right. People surveyed thought foreign national offenders comprised 25% of the prison population, when the real figure is 12%.

Respondents also overestimated the proportion of sexual offences committed by foreigners, believing it to be 30% when the real figure is 15%.

Again Reform voters’ perceptions were the most wrong, with them believing 50% of sexual offences were by foreign nationals – 20% higher than those who told the survey they were Conservative supporters.

Prof Bobby Duffy, of King’s College, said: “There are two buckets of explanations for our misperceptions: how we think and what we’re told.

“On the former, it’s vital to recognise that misperceptions are partly driven by what we’re worried about. Cause and effect run in both directions, where we inflate the scale of an issue if it’s something we’re concerned about.

“Reform supporters’ higher concern about immigration and diversity … will mean they’re more likely to give attention and weight to things they see that fit with that view, including crimes being committed by those groups.

“On what we’re told, they’re also more likely to be seeing media, social media and political communications that emphasise those examples.”

The survey also showed that claims of two-tier justice – meaning ethnic minorities have an easier time – are talking hold, despite all the evidence being to the contrary.

It found that 52% thought ethnic or religious minorities were sentenced differently for crimes, with 29% believing they got more lenient sentences, and 23% thinking they were sentenced more harshly.

Duffy said those who believed two-tier justice claims were more likely to question the system and call for radical change.

“This is important for trust and faith in the system, which is an issue particularly when it’s not justified by the reality,” he said. “We may end up taking actions that are not necessary or effective.”

Duffy also highlighted that respondents’ views coincided more with people their own age rather than their own ethnicity.

“For example, gen Z puts the white share of homicide convictions at 58%, whereas baby boomers put it at 35%. But white and non-white respondents give almost identical answers,” he said.

The survey also found that people overestimated the number of crime victims. The public’s median guess was 27%, far higher than the real figure of 9.7% who had personally experienced crime between 2024 and 2025.

Duffy said: “Our misperceptions are more of a general emotional reaction than careful study of the facts – we’re sending messages about what’s worrying us.”