Top Democrats tussle in Florida primary but progressive liberalism not on menu

Politics that worked for Democratic candidates in New York, Minnesota, Michigan won’t cut it in red Florida, analysts say

If primary elections elsewhere this summer were tussles between progressives and moderates for the direction of the Democratic party’s political future, Tuesday’s contests in Florida could not be more different.

In a former swing state that has in recent years become reliably red, moderate Democratic candidates Alex Vindman and David Jolly are heavily favored to become the party’s nominees for November’s Senate and governor’s race, respectively.

Analysts say the brand of progressive liberalism that worked so well for Democratic candidates in Minnesota , Michigan and New York , won’t cut it with voters in conservative Florida, and neither are Vindman, frontrunner for the Senate nomination to challenge Republican incumbent Ashley Moody, or Jolly, vying to succeed Ron DeSantis as governor, trying to sell it.

“There is a lot of curiosity about me from more traditional, pre-Trump-era Republicans that feel homeless,” Vindman said in March as he weighed the broad coalition of voters he will need to topple Moody, appointed by Republican DeSantis in January 2025 to replace Marco Rubio after his elevation to secretary of state.

“I’m running here as a kind of a different kind of Democrat, I’ve got my handguns, a concealed carry permit, not the standard fare.”

Florida has closed primaries, meaning only those voters who have declared party affiliation can choose its nominees. But Vindman and Jolly are already looking to court independents and disgruntled Republicans beyond Tuesday.

Vindman, a retired army lt col, and an impeachment witness against Trump during the president’s first term of office, is polling clear of state representative Angie Nixon in the Democratic primary. He has run a “Florida First” campaign that leans heavily on establishment values – the economy, social security stability for seniors, and tackling corruption in Washington.

“My race is entirely focused on my opponent, I’m not focused on anything besides Ashley Moody,” he said. “I feel a huge amount of support and kind of a new hope for a balanced politics in this state.”

Jolly, a former Republican congressman who became a Democrat last year, and is the most prominent name in a crowded field for the party’s governor’s nomination, also believes his moderate credentials are an asset.

In an interview with the Associated Press last week, Jolly stated he had no plans to try to reverse DeSantis’s ban on transgender girls and women athletes playing on female teams at public schools and universities.

“I don’t think we should have biologically born men playing in competitive sports,” he said in comments starkly at odds with pro-diversity positions taken by progressive victors elsewhere, such as Michigan’s Abdul El-Sayed, who promised to be “ a lion ” for LGBTQ+ rights if elected to the Senate.

Even so, the likely Republican candidate for governor has been declared to be a “radical liberal” by Byron Donalds , the Trump-aligned congressman who is the clear favorite for the Republican nomination.

In attack ads prevalent on Florida’s television screens in recent days, Donalds has painted Jolly as a fervent supporter of the transgender community, attempted insults Jolly has shrugged off by challenging Donalds on issues he said matter more to “regular” Floridians, such as soaring costs for property, insurance, gas and groceries, instead of focusing on culture war issues.

The man of the people approach is also a theme for Jay Collins, DeSantis’s lieutenant governor, and one of three Republicans challenging Donalds for the nomination.

“I mow my own yard. I gas up my own truck. I live the same Florida life that working families live,” Collins, a former Green Beret, told reporters in a press conference Thursday that portrayed Donalds, a congressman since 2021, as an absentee Washington elite.

“We won’t win with vibes. We’re certainly not going to win with celebrity.”

Other Republicans in the governor’s race are James Fishback, a far-right extremist who has endured a bumpy primary campaign , and Paul Renner, the former speaker of the Florida house and legislative ally of DeSantis, who has declined to make a primary endorsement.

Polling shows Donalds close to 50% , with his rivals at 15% or below.

Political analysts see voter dissatisfaction in Florida with Trump, and the soon-to-be termed-out DeSantis to a degree, but nothing likely to spark a wholesale ideological swing.

“Going back many decades, if you look at Florida’s political culture, it’s moderate to conservative,” said Aubrey Jewett, professor of political science at the University of Central Florida.

“Roughly 40% of Floridians say they’re moderate, 40% say they’re conservative, and only about 20% say they’re liberal. It’s been steady for decades, and one way of saying there’s just not as many progressives, or liberals, or socialists, in Florida as apparently there are in some other places currently.

“Unlike some of the big battles we’ve seen nationwide between the progressive socialist wing of the Democratic party and the moderate wing, I don’t think that’s going to be the case in Florida. The voters will sort it out but from a Democratic perspective it would be good for them if they got the more moderate candidates, and I think that’s what most Democrats feel.”

Nikki Fried, the chair of the Florida Democratic party, and its most recent winner of statewide election when she became agriculture commissioner in 2018, largely sees the middle ground as the key to reversing years of disappointment.

“The coalition that makes up Florida is different. Every demographic inside the Democratic party is more conservative than the demographics outside of our state,” she said.

“And a coalition here that has to be built is very unique to Florida, candidates running up and down the ticket from first responders to veterans, Teach for America alumni, and just everyday Floridians who are frustrated with the state affairs here.

“All of them have been at the doors, on the phones, talking to voters for the better part of the last year and a half, and really listening, listening to concerns from Floridians. And it’s a pretty consistent drumbeat.”

Fried said she expects a voter backlash to DeSantis’s partisan gerrymandering of congressional districts, which was intended to reduce Democrats’ hold on the state’s 28 seats from eight to four. It forced some candidates to switch districts mid-campaign, and set up rancorous primary races elsewhere between leftist hopefuls and established congress members.

Fried said DeSantis’s move could backfire. “Right now, the Republicans have a nasty primary for governor that is going to decrease their motivation to turn out in November,” she said.

“You have a president who is significantly underwater, and a state where for 30 years one party has had control and people can’t afford to live here. So the enthusiasm on the Republican side to turn out is going to be significantly diminished.

“One-third of our state is independent and what we have seen since the last 18 months since President Trump took a second term is that that independent block has been breaking for Democrats in record numbers. An energized Democratic base, independents breaking with us 60, 70%, and a diminished Republican turnout in energy … that’s a winning equation.”

Jewett, meanwhile, said DeSantis’s eight years as a hardline governor might prompt chunks of the electorate to seek something different.

“When you talk about some very specific policies, sometimes Floridians actually have more progressive views than you might think, it’s just that most of them don’t want to call themselves progressive or socialists, even if they agreed,” he said.

“You know, we voted to increase the minimum wage to $15 an hour over time. We voted for medical marijuana. So there are some particular issues that Floridians may be a little bit more progressive on, but most don’t think of it like that.

“That label still has a negative connotation to a lot of voters.”