Labour ‘could lose up to 50 seats’ to Greens if new drilling in North Sea approved

Greens say analysis shows government failure to take bold climate action could lead to big gains for party at election

Labour could lose dozens of seats to the Green party if the government allows new drilling in the North Sea, according to internal research shared with the Guardian.

Green party analysis suggests up to 50 Labour MPs – including key Andy Burnham ally Louise Haigh – could lose their seats at the next election if the government fails to make urgent climate action a priority or allows new drilling for oil and gas in the North Sea.

The research found that voters in these key Labour v Green seats want “bold action” to tackle the climate crisis, which has contributed to record heatwaves, devastating wildfires and crippling droughts this summer in the UK – and say Labour MPs will pay the price if the demands are not met.

Rachel Millward, deputy leader of the Green party, said: “If Labour won’t be swayed by the science or the moral imperative to leave all fossil fuels in the ground, perhaps they will listen to the polling. The data is clear: voters want more from our government on climate change, and they certainly don’t want our new prime minister to back away from his party’s bare minimum commitments.”

Labour dismissed the claims, pointing out that since Burnham took office the number of seats the Green party is projected to win at the next election has fallen from 20 to seven.

Last month, Burnham, who has been tight lipped about the climate crisis since tacking office, said he would be “pragmatic” about oil and gas and that decisions on new drilling would be made “in due course”. “The question isn’t whether Britain will still be using oil and gas, the question is where does it come from,” he said.

But many Labour MPs are increasingly worried about how support for expanded drilling will play with an electorate alarmed by the worst drought since 1976, record heatwaves, wildfires, and climate-related food inflation and potential supply shortages.

They say new drilling in the North Sea will do nothing to improve energy security or lower bills but will pour even more taxpayer money into the coffers of the oil giants – who have already made record profits this year .

The Greens have stressed their opposition to further new licences for oil and gas drilling the North Sea, including the Jackdaw gasfield and the Rosebank oilfield, west of Shetland. A decision on these projects is due in the coming weeks and the Greens say they expect a new surge in defectors from Labour if the projects are approved.

Millward said: “Right now we are facing the worst crisis since world war two – and yet rather than step up to the mark, we have a prime minister who seems more interested in telling Donald Trump what he wants to hear on North Sea drilling than taking the bold action needed to keep us safe.”

Green party researchers identified the 50 seats held by Labour that require the smallest swing to be taken by the Greens. They then cross-referenced constituency-level polling carried out by Friends of the Earth in October last year that included a question on whether the government should “go faster” in its efforts to tackle the climate crisis.

More than 50% of voters in every Labour-Green battleground constituency supported the idea that the government should do more to tackle the climate crisis, with more than two-thirds backing the idea in several constituencies. Thirty-seven of the 50 seats equalled or exceeded the England-wide average of 55.5% that favoured faster climate action, with just 13 falling below that figure.

A Labour source dismissed the findings, saying: “This is utter fantasy from a party desperate for relevance. Back in the real world Labour is delivering lower bills, energy security and good jobs.”

But Luke Tryl, from the polling group More in Common, warned that urgent action on the climate was “an important glue that unites much of Labour’s coalition”.

He added: “If Labour is seen to be rowing back on its commitment to tackling climate change and clean energy it will undoubtedly deter some of the progressive voters Labour has been winning back under Burnham.”

Tryl said that approving individual licences in the North Sea might not trigger a Green surge as long as voters believed Labour was sticking to its manifesto pledges on net zero.

He added: “A pragmatic approach that continues progress to net zero but which balances cost of living concerns is likely to be the best way for Labour to maintain and unite the different wings of their coalition.”