Why Paige Bueckers and the Dallas Wings will shock Caitlin Clark and the Indiana Fever tonight

If you like the WNBA, and judging by the page views, the Fox News audience LOVES women’s basketball, then I’m sure you’re pumped about the red-hot Indiana Fever (24-12) facing the slumping Dallas Wings (20-16) Thursday at 8 p.m. ET.

Indiana is 7-2 straight up (SU) and 5-4 against the spread (ATS) post-All-Star break with a five-game winning streak. Dallas, on the other hand, is 2-7 SU and ATS since the WNBA All-Star Game with losses in five of its past six games and six straight non-covers.

The Fever-Wings season series is tied 1-1 SU and ATS. Indiana beat Dallas 98-87 this past Friday to even the season series after the Wings beat the Fever 107-104 in their season openers.

CAITLIN CLARK OVERCOMES INJURY SCARE, DROPS 29 POINTS ON DALLAS WINGS AS FEVER TAKE TOP SPOT IN EAST

Dallas was up 3 points heading into the fourth quarter last week despite not having its leading rebounder and leader in PER, starting C Jessica Shepard. In their first Fever-Wings meeting this year, Shepard had game-highs in rebounds (9) and assists (9).

Indiana is due for a loss, and it’s tough beating a team twice in a short span. With that in mind, here are more reasons why I’m taking the points with Dallas in this game.

This is a controversial take in these parts, and I don’t get why, but Paige Bueckers is better than Caitlin Clark. Both were No. 1 overall picks, won WNBA Rookie of the Year, and average nearly 20 points per game (PPG).

Yet, Bueckers has a higher career PER (22.0-19.7) and on/off rating (+6.7 vs. +1.1), shoots better from everywhere on the floor and commits roughly three fewer turnovers per game (5.2-2.1).

The Wings suffered a major blow this week with 2026 No. 1 overall pick Azzi Fudd undergoing season-ending arthroscopic surgery on her knee. Fudd leads the team in on/off net rating and 3-pointers made per game.

AZZI FUDD WINS WNBA 3-POINT CONTEST, BECOMES FIRST ROOKIE CHAMPION

However, that should increase Bueckers’ usage rate, which isn’t a bad thing. She is scoring 22.5 PPG on 51.5% shooting in six career meetings with the Fever.

Also, the home/road scoring and shooting splits for these teams are massive, and the market isn’t giving Dallas a big enough boost for home-court advantage. The Wings have a +6.4 margin of victory at home and -2.1 on the road. Indy has a +8.7 margin of victory at home and a +2.8 margin of victory on the road.

Furthermore, Indiana is much better at getting to the charity stripe, but Dallas is third in defensive FT/FGA rate, and teams tend to get a better whistle at home. The Wings got to the foul line more in both games vs. the Fever this season.

SIGN UP TO GET THE LATEST SPORTS NEWS

Meanwhile, and this is even truer in the WNBA, the "battle for possessions" is the most important thing in high-level basketball, and Dallas has a better turnover rate on both ends of the floor.

STAY "FEARLESS" ON THE GO! TAKE TOMI LAHREN WITH YOU. DOWNLOAD THE TLIF PODCAST NOW!

Lastly, the Wings have a rest edge with their last game being Monday and Indiana’s previous game being Tuesday. Indy has played twice since its last game vs. Dallas, which has just played once since this past Friday, and the Fever are 4-8 ATS with a rest disadvantage.

_____________________________

Follow me on X @Geoffery-Clark, and check out my "OutKick Bets Podcast" for more betting content and random rants.