The GOP’s underlying midterm problem: From the Politics Desk

Welcome to From the Politics Desk , a daily newsletter that brings you the NBC News Politics team’s latest reporting and analysis from the White House, Capitol Hill and the campaign trail.

In today’s edition, Jonathan Allen breaks down the greatest obstacle facing the Republican Party in the midterms. Plus, Katherine Doyle has an exclusive report on a conservative TV network’s plans to branch into entertainment.

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The GOP’s underlying midterm problem

Analysis by Jonathan Allen

Republicans’ biggest challenge heading into the midterm elections isn’t inflation or the Iran war.

Yes, those are the issues at the top of most voters’ minds. And yes, Republicans have failed to address them to voters’ satisfaction.

But the deeper problem for the party is that those issues represent broken campaign promises by President Donald Trump and, at least by association, the Republican majorities in Congress.

In the 2024 presidential race, Trump vowed that he would end inflation and end wars. Nearly two years later, prices are still going up, Russia’s war in Ukraine is still raging, and the Israel-Hamas war is still unresolved. And the U.S. is now six months into a war in Iran that has further exacerbated high costs.

A suboptimal economy and an unpopular foreign war would be a drag on any president. But they are doubly devastating for Trump because he made curbing inflation and keeping the country out of war key components of his brand.

Polls show that Democrats are eager to vote against Trump, about three-quarters of independents disapprove of him, and, while most Republicans still approve of the job he’s doing, less than half of them “strongly approve” of his job performance.

I recently took a road trip across Interstate 80 from central New Jersey to Omaha, Nebraska, and talked to voters in swing districts and swing states about the midterms, the president and the issues they care about most. The broken promises came up repeatedly — of course from Democrats who didn’t believe them in the first place, but also from Republicans who have been disappointed or disillusioned by them.

This may not matter much electorally for Trump himself, as he won’t be on the ballot again. But it has two important effects on his fellow Republicans in the midterms.

First, the party’s base is deflated, which means Republican candidates only have a couple of months to light a serious fire under their own voters and persuade independents to swing back toward them. Second, and perhaps more troubling for Republicans, it’s hard for Trump to act as a validator for candidates in crucial battlegrounds if voters don’t trust him.

In South Carolina last week, he urged Republican primary voters to “pretend I’m on the ballot.”

Democrats are sure to do that. Unless he executes a major turnaround on the two biggest issues of the moment, Republicans may want to pretend that the midterms aren’t about him.

MTV for MAGA: Conservative network Real America’s Voice plans new entertainment programming

By Katherine Doyle

For conservatives who don’t want their MTV, there’s something coming: new entertainment programming created specifically for them.

Real America’s Voice, a news and commentary network popular with fans of President Donald Trump , is expanding into reality television, music and lifestyle programming, creating a slate of MAGA programming inspired by channels like MTV on the bet that its fiercely loyal audience will follow the brand wherever it goes.

Instead of having viewers leave for competing entertainment channels, executives hope to offer programming that keeps their audience inside the Real America’s Voice ecosystem, Parker Sigg , the company’s vice president, told NBC News.

“We want to be able to reach into people’s lives, in every facet of it,” said Sigg. “Political news is our bread and butter, but I don’t think it’s healthy to watch 24/7.”

The new offerings include “Left Right Love” — a dating series pairing liberals and conservatives that executives expect to begin airing early next year — and a talent competition with a working title of “Star Spangled Talent.” There will also be music videos and lifestyle programming, while comedy, cooking and variety shows are still in development.

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That’s all From the Politics Desk for now. Today’s newsletter was compiled by Adam Wollner.

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