Far-right AfD predicted to win big in crucial German state election

Polling stations open in Saxony-Anhalt with anti-immigration party AfD predicted to gain 41% vote share

Polls have opened in the east German state of Saxony-Anhalt, where the populist, far-right, anti-immigration Alternative für Deutschland (AfD) is predicted to emerge on top in an election that could have a groundbreaking effect on Germany’s political landscape.

About 1.7 million people are eligible to vote. Polling booths opened at 8am local time and will close at 6pm, when exit polls are expected to deliver an initial indication of whether the AfD has secured enough votes for an absolute majority, enabling it to govern the state.

That would mark the first time the party had won a state government, and the first time since the second world war that a rightwing extremist party had gained power at regional state or parliament level in Germany .

Final polls before the vote showed the AfD to have about 40-41% of support. The number of undecided voters in advance of the vote was much lower than at previous elections, polling showed.

Currently, the small state is governed by the conservative Christian Democratic Union (CDU) of the chancellor, Friedrich Merz, together with two smaller parties. The CDU, on about 23%, under its state prime minister, Sven Schulze, hopes to be able to construct a multiparty coalition to be able to retain power.

The CDU and all other mainstream parties have refused to be in coalition with the AfD in a government, in what is referred to as a Brandmauer or firewall. The AfD in Saxony-Anhalt has been classed as “rightwing extremist” by Germany’s domestic intelligence agency.

The AfD’s lead candidate is Ulrich Siegmund, 35, a former fragrance salesman with a large following on TikTok who has been celebrated like a pop star. He has insisted he will take power only if the party receives an absolute majority, and would not tolerate a coalition with another party.

The Saxony-Anhalt election is the biggest test yet for Merz, who is unpopular, along with his government, after having failed in his promises to reset Germany’s struggling economy and reduce the support for the AfD. Irregular immigration has reduced since he has been in office, but not to the extent that it has appeased the average voter.

If the AfD won convincingly, it would put huge pressure on Merz. In national polls, the CDU has also been overtaken by the AfD, which has its eyes on victory at the next federal election in 2029.

If the AfD is elected in Saxony-Anhalt, Siegmund has promised to start a remigration and deportation offensive, ban rainbow flags in schools and halt the building of new wind farms.

He wants to change the slogan of the state from “Think modern” to “Think German” and to reintroduce the singing of the national anthem in schools.

Siegmund has sought to capitalise on a mood of ostalgie – nostalgia for communist East Germany – and to tap into discontent amongst east Germans who view themselves as second-class citizens to people from the west.

He turned up to vote on Sunday morning with his wife, riding an East German-era moped in the party colours, which was also a prominent prop during the election campaign in rallies across the state. In a statement in front of the polling station, he voiced his optimism that the party would achieve “45%, and some”.

Thousands of opponents of the AfD gathered in the state capital, Magdeburg, on Saturday for a “festival of democracy”.

On Saturday evening, a message beamed onto the facade of Magdeburg Cathedral read: “We do not abandon what we love. True love of the homeland is not the AfD.”

The bishop of Magdeburg, Gerhard Feige, in an address to a gathering of churchgoers, warned against forces “that want to sow discord, stoke mistrust and fear”. He drew parallels to historical developments, warning that a democracy has the potential to abolish itself. “Not everyone who votes or is elected democratically is a democrat,” he said.

The German Economic Institute has warned of the far-reaching consequences for the German economy, in Saxony-Anhalt and beyond, specifically over its immigration policy, which it said would be “calamitous” for the state, which has an ageing, dwindling population and is heavily dependent on foreign workers.

Critics have also warned, due to the Kremlin-friendly stance of the party, that an AfD-run state could leak sensitive information to Russia. The AfD has dismissed such claims. It has said it would seek to reform the domestic intelligence service, calling it biased.

The latest poll by the public broadcaster ZDF on Thursday put the AfD on a decisive lead of 41%, with the CDU trailing on 23%, the far-left Die Linke on 11.5%, the Social Democrats on 8.5% and the Greens on 6%. Two smaller parties failed to reach the 5% hurdle needed to re-enter parliament.

Independent election observers are active at polling booths amid speculation from the AfD that voter fraud has taken place, in particular in postal voting, with specific focus on a retirement home. State authorities have denied the claims.