Trump’s promise of $5,000 ‘dividend’ for US citizens after midterms met with incredulity

Critics react to bid for Republican votes with incredulity and point to potential $1.2tn cost atop existing national debt

Donald Trump’s promise of a $5,000 “Trump dividend” for every US citizen if Republicans retain control of the US Congress in November’s midterm elections has sparked incredulity and accusations of bribery.

“If the Republicans win, you win with us and you get $5,000,” Trump said during the unprecedented Republican midterm convention in Dallas. “It will be called the Trump dividend.”

It comes amid extreme concern over the US national debt, which exceeded $40tn for the first time in August.

Speaking to Politico , Chip Roy, the Republican US representative from Texas, sounded skeptical. “Well – I would like to know how they would plan to pay for … back of envelope … well over $1tn,” he said.

In the moments after Trump made the announcement, Marc Goldwein of the Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget wrote on X that “this would cost about $1.2 TRILLION in just one year. That’s more than ALL THREE ROUNDS of COVID relief checks, despite no recessions. The result would be a huge spike in the deficit, and almost certainly in the inflation rate.”

The US has roughly 240 million adult citizens, suggesting the cost of $1.2tn. The federal government spent about $7tn in fiscal year 2025, with about $2tn taken on as debt.

“The 10-year [treasury bond is] approaching 5%,” Goldwein said on Thursday morning. “Inflation is not under control. We spend more on interest than we spend on defense or on Medicare at this point. Social security is six years from insolvency. Just about the last thing we need is to borrow another trillion dollars to send checks to everybody.”

Spending like this risked an economic sugar high followed by a recessionary crash, he said. But Goldwein was most concerned about what might happen if Trump’s gambit is effective.

“If this works, the lesson for every future politician is going to be: if you want to win an election, promise a trillion dollars. And multiply a trillion dollars times the number of elections we have coming up, that is a recipe for bankruptcy.”

Democratic political leaders reacted with blunt condemnation.

“After making you sicker and poorer with his war, Donald Trump now wants to buy your vote with $5,000 in taxpayer-funded blood money,” the California governor, Gavin Newsom, said. “The most corrupt man ever to occupy the Oval Office.”

The Democratic National Committee (DNC) pointed to Trump’s record on similar pledges, from $5,000 stimulus checks as a result of the work of the so-called department of government efficiency (Doge) to $2,000 stimulus checks from revenue from tariffs.

“Donald Trump and Republicans are once again offering empty promises to Americans,” said Kendall Witmer, the committee’s rapid response director. “The only people reaping the benefits of Trump’s economy are himself, his family, and his ultra-rich elite donors. Meanwhile, working families get nothing except sky-high receipts at the grocery store and the pump, unaffordable healthcare premiums, and wages that aren’t keeping up with inflation.”

The Bipartisan Policy Center has been tracking tariff revenue since Trump began raising rates in 2025. As of 8 September, the US has collected about $210bn in tariff and excise tax revenue in 2026. At a rate of $21bn a month, the US federal government would have to collect tariffs for nearly five years to cover a $5,000 payment, assuming every dollar of tariff revenue went to the payment, and discounting tariff payments refunded to retailers in legal challenges.

Peter Schiff, chief economist for Euro Pacific Asset Management, said that Trump’s pledge had already begun rippling through financial markets.

“Even though bond investors know that, even in the unlikely event Republicans retain control of the House, Trump’s promise to borrow over $1 trillion more to buy votes won’t be kept,” Schiff wrote in a post on X. “The promise itself is so reckless that they’re dumping Treasuries, sending yields to new highs …

“Making his promise even worse, Trump referred to his $5,000 bribes as ‘dividends’, as if his policies had been so successful that the US now has surpluses to share. Instead, his reckless policies have produced massive deficits. Trump needs to send Americans bills, not checks.”

JD Vance appeared to walk back Trump’s pledge, suggesting that the benefit would be means-tested.

But the US senator Bernie Moreno, an Ohio Republican, promised support for Trump’s idea. “I will get a bill ready so that we can get the Trump Dividend passed immediately after the November 3rd election,” Moreno wrote on X.