The political risk behind Trump’s $5,000 pledge: From the Politics Desk

Welcome to From the Politics Desk , a daily newsletter that brings you the NBC News Politics team’s latest reporting and analysis from the White House, Capitol Hill and the campaign trail.

In today’s edition, Jonathan Allen digs into President Donald Trump’s latest promise to voters. Plus, Henry J. Gomez has the details on Vice President JD Vance’s message to battleground state Republicans at the midterm convention.

The political risk behind Trump’s $5,000 pledge

Analysis by Jonathan Allen

There are plenty of reasons President Donald Trump received criticism for promising last night to hand out $5,000 to every adult American if voters keep Republicans in charge of the House and Senate in November’s midterm election.

To some on the left, it sounded like a bribe — though it is surely legal for politicians to promise public policy outcomes as they seek votes. To some on the right, it sounded like a plan straight out of the socialist playbook.

And the president of the nonpartisan Center for a Responsible Budget, Maya MacGuineas , had a few choice words about deficit spending.

“This proposal is fiscally dangerous, economically backwards and fundamentally unserious,” she said in a statement. Her organization estimated the proposal would cost $1.2 trillion to implement. Economists have also noted that a cash infusion of that size, far bigger than any of the Covid stimulus packages, would almost certainly cause further inflation.

Of course, he would need Congress to go along because it controls the nation’s purse strings. And that’s why, regardless of the substantive, ideological and ethical objections the plan has engendered, it’s risky politics.

Even some Trump voters are frustrated with what they say are the broken promises of the president’s second term. He said he wouldn’t start new wars. He said he would end inflation. He said he would stop the fighting between Russia and Ukraine on his first day in office. None of those things have happened. It’s not clear that anyone who isn’t squarely on Team Trump will believe that they can score a bonus check by voting for a Republican this fall.

He has a credibility problem with independents and some Republicans. That makes it harder for him to be an effective surrogate for GOP candidates in the midterms and to regain his own footing. President Joe Biden experienced a similar phenomenon after playing down inflation, illegal immigration and his own aging.

By promising to boost the bottom line for every adult American citizen by $5,000, Trump has created an expectation that it will be difficult, at best, for him to fulfill. Is it possible, if Republicans control both chambers of Congress in 2027, that he could twist enough arms to pass the money through the filibuster-proof reconciliation process? Sure.

But the whole plan is so antithetical to conservative economic dogma — and so reliant on deficit financing — that it’s hard to see Republicans developing an appetite for it as he is on his way out of the presidency.

That would leave Trump with another broken promise.

Vance calls on battleground state Republicans to ‘nationalize’ the midterms

By Henry J. Gomez

DALLAS — Vice President JD Vance urged Republicans from several battleground states to “nationalize” their midterm elections this fall.

“We have two things that we’ve got to do in order to win these midterm elections,” Vance said during remarks at a private breakfast here today with GOP leaders and activists from Michigan, Ohio, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin, according to audio obtained by NBC News from a person who was in the room.

“Number one, we have to remind the American people of all the good things that we’re doing,” he said, “and number two, we have to remind the American people of how effing crazy the Democrats have become over the past couple of years.”

Vance, who is viewed as a likely candidate to succeed term-limited President Donald Trump in 2028, added: “We’ve got to nationalize this election. We’ve got to talk about all the crazy things the Democrats are doing.”

Vance singled out Abdul El-Sayed , the party’s Senate nominee in Michigan. Vance has been particularly critical of El-Sayed , having traveled last week to Michigan to make an explicit case against him. This morning, with Michigan delegates in the room, he called El-Sayed a “nut job.”

“I think Abdul El-Sayed may very well be the person who wins Republicans the midterms in November because he’s such a crazy person,” Vance said.

The remarks, which were closed to the media, came ahead of Vance’s speech tonight at the Republicans’ midterm convention. (Follow along with coverage on our live blog .)

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That’s all From the Politics Desk for now. Today’s newsletter was compiled by Adam Wollner.

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