What to know about China's plenum as Xi seeks stronger party discipline

FILE - In this photo released on July 18, 2024, by Xinhua News Agency Chinese President Xi Jinping speaks at the third plenary session of the 20th Communist Party of China (CPC) Central Committee held from July 15 to 18 in Beijing. Xie Huanchi/Xinhua via AP hide caption

HONG KONG — China's political leaders and elites began a four-day meeting Monday to discuss strengthening the ruling Communist Party's discipline, as Chinese President Xi Jinping pushes for greater loyalty and reliability from officials while deepening his yearslong campaign against corruption.

This week's closed-door gathering, known as the fifth plenum of the Central Committee of the Chinese Communist Party, comes roughly a year before Xi is widely expected to secure his fourth five-year term as the party's leader and personnel changes to key leadership bodies.

Xi began the meeting by delivering a work report and speaking about a draft policy decision on advancing "full and rigorous party self-governance," according to China's official Xinhua News Agency. The policy aims to make cadres more disciplined, effective and less corrupt.

While Xi has consolidated his grip on power, analysts say the plenum will offer him an opportunity to further align what Chinese officials do with what Beijing wants.

"The plenum is a chance to ensure the new generations rising the ranks share Xi's assessment of the opportunities and risks China faces," said Ruby Osman, a senior policy adviser at London's Tony Blair Institute for Global Change.

Here's what to know about one of Beijing's most significant political meetings this year.

Xi targets underperforming cadres and corruption

Xi's anti-graft drive has been a defining feature of his rule since he came to power in 2012. Purges of officials — including some viewed as his political rivals — have been carried out on a scale that led critics to argue the campaign was also used to consolidate his power.

But his focus has expanded to cracking down on underperforming cadres too. In recent years, the number of officials punished for "formalism" and "bureaucratism" — misconduct such as dereliction of duty, inaction and reckless acts that seriously hinder development — has surged.

Xi's policy proposals reflect his emphasis on the party's "self-revolution," a concept centered on the party reforming itself through efforts such as rooting out corruption and building ideological commitment, analysts say.

Osman said the disciplinary crackdowns are now aimed more at institutional longevity.

"It's less about purging elite rivals and more about building a disciplined system that can sustain Xi's political priorities across leadership cycles," she said.

Record-high disciplinary campaigns also do not necessarily mean a rebound in corruption, but rather that Xi has been steadily raising the bar for the party's expectations of officials, she added.

Mingda Qiu, senior analyst of Eurasia Group's China practice, said Beijing has been building its agenda for months.

"The message is clear: the anti-corruption campaign is not winding down. Officials are not only tested for loyalty, but also for compliance and action," he said.

Xi said in a January meeting that while decisions by the party's top leadership were smoothly implemented in general, inspections and audits found problems such as failures to comply and improper execution, according to an October article in the Qiushi Journal, a publication of the central committee.

Xi warned against "two-faced people" who might profess political loyalty while privately defying orders and doing as they please.

"During leadership transitions, we must keep our eyes sharp, elevate good cadres who are truly loyal and reliable, consistent in word and deed, and willing to take responsibility, and never allow 'two-faced people' or those driven by self-interest to slip through," Xi was quoted as saying.

Xi's purges of top army officials will be put on display

The number of empty seats in the conference hall this week will help observers gauge how widespread Xi's purges have been.

Neil Thomas, senior fellow at the Asia Society Policy Institute, and his colleagues Lobsang Tsering and Shengyu Wang noted that while Xi's civilian purges are record-breaking, 42 out of 44 officials affiliated with the military elected as full central committee members in 2022 have also been purged or disappeared.

The central committee started its term in 2022 with more than 370 full and alternate members. Thomas and his colleagues estimated turnout this week could be less than 80%, potentially setting a record low at any plenum since the end of former leader Mao Zedong's rule in 1976.

Attention will also be on new demands on the officials who remain.

Thomas expects tighter scrutiny of public spending and major projects, more use of technology to uncover corruption, and tougher consequences for officials who fail to deliver on Xi's priorities.

New personnel appointments are possible, though Xi may wait until a once-in-five-years Communist Party Congress next year to anoint his picks, said Steve Tsang, director of the SOAS China Institute in London. If he does fill any openings, it will be with loyalists, he added.

Hints at a Xi successor are unlikely

The underlying theme of the fifth plenum is that it will be another opportunity for Xi to position himself for an unprecedented fourth term in office.

Xi, who removed presidential term limits in 2018, is viewed by some as the most powerful Chinese leader since Mao. He is widely expected to be confirmed as party leader for the next term in the fall of 2027.

Ahead of that, Thomas said new ideological language reinforcing Xi's authority might emerge at this week's meeting.

He said the plenum should prepare the ground for Xi's fourth term and reinforce expectations of political and policy continuity.

"After Xi has purged so many of the people that he promoted at the last congress, watch for tougher scrutiny of the officials competing to join his next leadership team," he said.

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